ABD\u2019de in\u015faat izinleri may\u0131sta y\u00fczde 0,7 gerileyerek bir \u00f6nceki ayki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirdi. Son veri, daha \u00f6nce kaydedilen y\u00fczde 5,8\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gelerek izin verilen in\u015faat faaliyetinde daha zay\u0131f bir tempoya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fcmeden daralmaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, nisan ay\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan izin ivmesinin so\u011fudu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130n\u015faat izinleri, yeni konut projelerine ba\u015flama niyetlerini yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in konut arz\u0131na dair ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck bir g\u00f6sterge olarak yak\u0131ndan izleniyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130n\u015faat izinlerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir daralmaya keskin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, bunu konut piyasas\u0131nda belirgin bir so\u011fuma sinyali olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. May\u0131s raporu, artan bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin nihayet gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck in\u015faat planlar\u0131n\u0131 etkilemeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bunun tek seferlik bir geli\u015fme de\u011fil, yumu\u015fama e\u011filiminin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu yava\u015flama, izledi\u011fimiz di\u011fer g\u00fcncel verilerle de uyumlu. \u00d6rne\u011fin, National Association of Home Builders\/Wells Fargo Konut Piyasas\u0131 Endeksi (HMI) birka\u00e7 ayd\u0131r 50 e\u015fik seviyesinin alt\u0131nda seyrediyor; bu da m\u00fcteahhitler cephesinde k\u00f6t\u00fcmserli\u011fe i\u015faret ediyor. 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k mortgage faizleri inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fczde 6,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, konut eri\u015filebilirli\u011fi talep a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir engel olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, bu sekt\u00f6rde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir hareketi fiyatlamak \u00fczere SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) almay\u0131 planl\u0131yoruz. Bu, yeni in\u015faatlardaki gerilemeden ve al\u0131c\u0131 duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki bozulmadan en fazla etkilenen \u015firketlere do\u011frudan maruziyet sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Yeni izin verilerini baz ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda bunu y\u00fcksek inan\u00e7l\u0131 bir i\u015flem olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Konutun \u00f6tesinde, bu veri Fed\u2019in faiz politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmelerini de etkileyebilir. \u0130n\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki yava\u015flama enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131 azalt\u0131r ve Fed\u2019in bu y\u0131l ilave faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr. Daha n\u00f6tr ya da g\u00fcvercin bir merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik piyasa beklentilerindeki de\u011fi\u015fimi g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerini izleyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcy\u00fc daha \u00f6nce de g\u00f6rd\u00fck; \u00f6rne\u011fin 2018\u2019in sonlar\u0131nda Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n konut piyasas\u0131nda ge\u00e7ici bir durgunlu\u011fa yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nem. Bu s\u00fcreci, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131yla artan piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 izlemi\u015fti. Bu nedenle, daha geni\u015f bir piyasa dalgalanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6rece ucuz bir korunma arac\u0131 olarak VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (call) da de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130lk a\u015famada, yap\u0131 malzemesi tedarik\u00e7ilerine ve y\u00fcksek mortgage portf\u00f6y\u00fcne sahip b\u00f6lgesel bankalara y\u00f6nelik uzun pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 azalt\u0131yoruz. So\u011fuma e\u011filiminin teyidi i\u00e7in yakla\u015fan \u0130kinci El Konut Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve Yeni Konut Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 verilerini yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz. Konjonkt\u00fcre duyarl\u0131 (pro-cyclical) duru\u015ftan daha savunmac\u0131 bir pozisyona ge\u00e7me zaman\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de in\u015faat izinleri may\u0131sta %0,7 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; nisan\u0131n %5,8 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 geri verildi. Mortgage faizi %6,5+ konutu so\u011futuyor. XHB\u2019de put, VIX\u2019te call \u00f6nerisi; Fed bask\u0131s\u0131 azalabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47717,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48925","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48925","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48925"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48925\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47717"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48925"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48925"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48925"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}