ABD\u2019de konut ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7lar\u0131 May\u0131s\u2019ta %15,4 gerileyerek Nisan\u2019daki %2,8\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok daha sert bir daralma kaydetti. Son veri, yeni konut in\u015faat faaliyetinde ay boyunca daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket, bir \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan geldi ve konut yap\u0131m\u0131nda ivmenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Veriler ayl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimi yans\u0131t\u0131yor; May\u0131s\u2019taki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, \u00f6nceki -%2,8 seviyesinden -%15,4\u2019e geni\u015fledi.<\/p>\n
Yeni konut ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7lar\u0131 verisini ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir \u201ck\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 bayrak\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. %15,4\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir dalgalanma de\u011fil; m\u00fcteahhitlerin projeleri artan h\u0131zla iptal etti\u011fini g\u00f6steren sert bir daralma. NAHB\/Wells Fargo Konut Piyasas\u0131 Endeksi\u2019nin yak\u0131n zamanda 35\u2019e gerilemesi ve 50\u2019lik e\u015fik seviyenin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131, m\u00fcteahhit g\u00fcveninin a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda konut in\u015faat (homebuilding) sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bearish) pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yoruz. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) gibi ETF\u2019lerde put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n, sekt\u00f6r genelinde bir gerilemeye maruz kalmak i\u00e7in iyi bir y\u00f6ntem sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Konut ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7lar\u0131nda 2006 sonlar\u0131nda da benzer bir \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin derinle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck; bu da s\u00f6z konusu piyasada \u00e7ok daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir gerilemenin \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fl\u0131ca itici g\u00fc\u00e7 bor\u00e7lanma maliyeti: ortalama 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k sabit mortgage faizi %7,8 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini koruyor; bu seviye potansiyel al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n talebini belirgin bi\u00e7imde bo\u011fuyor. Kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131 yeni konutlar\u0131 eri\u015filemez hale getirirken, m\u00fcteahhitleri de tahminlerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmeye zorluyor. Bu veri, ka\u00e7\u0131nmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131 \u201csert ini\u015f\u201d riskine i\u015faret etti\u011fi i\u00e7in ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) \u00fczerinde de ciddi bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca in\u015faata ba\u011fl\u0131 emtia piyasas\u0131nda t\u00fcrev odakl\u0131 pozisyonlara bak\u0131yoruz. Son \u00e7eyrekte yava\u015flama beklentisiyle zaten %20\u2019den fazla gerileyen kereste (lumber) vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda, bu haberle birlikte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn devam etmesi muhtemel. Kereste vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon almak ya da kereste ve bak\u0131r \u00fcreticilerinde put opsiyonu almak, mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir ikincil i\u015flem (secondary trade) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Geni\u015f piyasan\u0131n bu veriyi hafife ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; zira S&P 500\u2019de z\u0131mni volatilite \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmaya devam etti. Bu da daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bir ekonomik yava\u015flamaya kar\u015f\u0131 nispeten ucuz koruma sat\u0131n almak i\u00e7in iyi bir f\u0131rsata i\u015faret ediyor. Konuttaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131na ve bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne yay\u0131lma riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak \u00fczere VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) veya SPY put spread stratejilerini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de konut ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7lar\u0131 May\u0131s\u2019ta %15,4 \u00e7ak\u0131ld\u0131: m\u00fcteahhit g\u00fcveni alarm veriyor. Y\u00fcksek mortgage faizi talebi bo\u011farken XHB\u2019de put, kerestede short ve VIX\/SPY ile sigorta \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47680,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48924","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48924","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48924"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48924\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47680"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48924"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48924"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48924"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}