ABD ihracat fiyat endeksi May\u0131s\u2019ta ayl\u0131k bazda %1,3 artarak %1,2\u2019lik beklentinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Veri, ihracat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ay boyunca \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden bir miktar daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ayl\u0131k bazda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri ile piyasa tahmini aras\u0131ndaki fark 0,1 y\u00fczde puan oldu. Buna g\u00f6re May\u0131s ay\u0131 ihracat fiyat enflasyonu, %1,2\u2019lik konsens\u00fcs beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k %1,3 ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f kaydetti.<\/p>\n
Beklentinin \u00fczerindeki bu ihracat fiyat verisini, enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 seyretti\u011fine dair net bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Rapor, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde hafifledi\u011fi anlat\u0131s\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. May\u0131s T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,1 art\u0131\u015f kaydetmesinin hemen ard\u0131ndan gelen bu son veri, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) patikas\u0131n\u0131 daha da karma\u015f\u0131k hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z h\u0131zla faiz t\u00fcrevlerine, \u00f6zellikle SOFR ve Fed Funds vadeli i\u015flem opsiyonlar\u0131na kay\u0131yor. Piyasa Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70\u2019e yak\u0131n fiyatl\u0131yordu; ancak bu veri muhtemelen bu takvimi Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na ya da hatta 2027\u2019ye sark\u0131tabilir. Pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131, d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek \u00f6ncesinde faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tacak \u015fekilde g\u00fcncelliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisse endeksleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlemeler \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarataca\u011f\u0131ndan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri art\u0131r\u0131yor. VIX\u2019te 14 civar\u0131ndaki son dip seviyelerden bir s\u0131\u00e7rama g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da S&P 500 ve Nasdaq-100\u2019de koruyucu put al\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmenin uygun olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftan\u0131n ana temas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla volatilite olacak.<\/p>\n
Daha \u015fahin bir Fed ihtimali ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadede do\u011frudan destekleyici. 106 seviyesi civar\u0131nda konsolide olan Dolar Endeksi (DXY) art\u0131k y\u0131l i\u00e7i zirvelerini test etmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Daha g\u00fcvercin merkez bankalar\u0131na sahip para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dolar uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131, bu ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 i\u015flemeye y\u00f6nelik etkili bir y\u00f6ntem olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130hracat fiyatlar\u0131ndaki bu g\u00fc\u00e7, temel emtia maliyetlerindeki son y\u00fckseli\u015fi de yans\u0131t\u0131yor; WTI ham petrol\u00fc ge\u00e7en hafta varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine yeniden t\u0131rmanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu durum enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ve ilgili t\u00fcrevlerde g\u00fcc\u00fcn s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ancak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar temkinli olmal\u0131; zira belirgin \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD dolar\u0131, zamanla emtia fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde ters r\u00fczg\u00e2r (headwind) yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz veri: ABD ihracat fiyat endeksi May\u0131s\u2019ta %1,3 artarak beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131. Kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon sinyali Fed\u2019in indirimini \u00f6teler; dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenir, hisseler bask\u0131lan\u0131r, volatilite ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47676,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48923","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48923","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48923"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48923\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47676"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48923"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48923"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48923"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}