ABD\u2019de \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6rde i\u015fe al\u0131mlar May\u0131s sonuna do\u011fru ivme kaybetti. ADP Ulusal \u0130stihdam Raporu\u2019nun haftal\u0131k tamamlay\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 olan NER Pulse, 30 May\u0131s\u2019ta sona eren d\u00f6rt haftada \u015firketlerin haftal\u0131k ortalama 25,5 bin ki\u015filik istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu rakam \u00f6nceki 29 bin seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kalarak, i\u015fe al\u0131m momentumunda m\u00fctevaz\u0131 bir ilave yumu\u015famaya i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Piyasalarda ABD Dolar\u0131, Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc geri \u00e7ekilmenin ard\u0131ndan 99,70 civar\u0131nda dalgal\u0131 seyretti ve ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck zirveleri test etti. USD\u2019deki haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da jeopolitik tansiyonun azalmas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendirilirken, kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda yeni a\u00e7\u0131klanan bir mutabakat zapt\u0131n\u0131 (MOU) de\u011ferlendirdi. Ayr\u0131 olarak, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 para politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan temel girdiler olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor: Fed azami istihdam ve fiyat istikrar\u0131ndan olu\u015fan \u00e7ifte yetkiyle hareket ederken, ECB enflasyona odaklan\u0131yor; ancak her iki kurum da enflasyonla ili\u015fkisi nedeniyle istihdam e\u011filimlerini \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6sterge olarak yak\u0131ndan izliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6zel sekt\u00f6rde i\u015fe al\u0131mlardaki son yava\u015flama, ciddiye ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bir sinyal. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu\u2019nun (BLS) resmi May\u0131s istihdam raporuyla da peki\u015fti: Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam 150 bin artarak 180 binlik piyasa beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu e\u011filim, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n nihayet gev\u015femeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu yava\u015flaman\u0131n, fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131ndaki azalmayla e\u015f zamanl\u0131 ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; May\u0131s ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,8\u2019e geriledi. Fed\u2019in \u00e7ifte yetkisinin her iki aya\u011f\u0131nda\u2014istihdam ve enflasyon\u2014\u0131l\u0131ml\u0131la\u015fma sinyalleri g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, ilave faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e h\u0131zla zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Fed yetkilileri de \u00fcsluplar\u0131n\u0131 \u201cveriye ba\u011fl\u0131\u201d bir \u00e7izgiye \u00e7ekmi\u015f durumda; bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n tamamen gelecek verilere ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131 veriliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 da bunu fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131: CME FedWatch Tool olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar faiz indirimi ihtimalinin %50\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Tarihsel olarak Fed beklentilerindeki bu t\u00fcr bir de\u011fi\u015fim, ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda dolar\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131k d\u00f6nemlerinden \u00f6nce s\u0131kl\u0131kla g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayabilecek EUR\/USD gibi paritelerde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call) cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na pozisyon almak i\u00e7in SOFR vadeli i\u015flemleri gibi faiz t\u00fcrevlerine de bak\u0131yoruz. Bir sonraki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 ve T\u00dcFE a\u00e7\u0131klama tarihleri etraf\u0131ndaki ima edilen oynakl\u0131k, risk y\u00f6netimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6zellikle kullan\u0131\u015fl\u0131 hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de i\u015fe al\u0131mlar h\u0131z kesiyor, enflasyon geriliyor: Fed\u2019in faiz indirimi ihtimali piyasada g\u00fc\u00e7 kazan\u0131yor. Dolar bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda; CME Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e %50+ indirim fiyatl\u0131yor. EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131 ve SOFR \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48921","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48921","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48921"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48921\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48921"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48921"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48921"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}