ABD\u2019de ADP istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi 4 haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 May\u0131s 2023\u2019te 25,5 bine gerileyerek \u00f6nceki 29 bin seviyesinden d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu hareket, bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcte g\u00f6re son d\u00f6nemdeki istihdam art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n yumu\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Son veri, hareketli ortalamay\u0131 3,5 bin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerek \u00f6nceki d\u00f6neme k\u0131yasla ivme kayb\u0131na i\u015faret etti. ADP, yak\u0131n vadeli i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131na dair ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 sundu\u011fu i\u00e7in yak\u0131ndan izleniyor.<\/p>\n
2023\u2019ten bu yana istihdam yarat\u0131m\u0131ndaki yava\u015flama e\u011filimi, mevcut verilerimizde art\u0131k net bir \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc. May\u0131s 2026\u2019ya ili\u015fkin en son ADP raporu, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6rde yaln\u0131zca 95 binlik istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret ederek beklentilerin belirgin bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve so\u011fuyan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131 teyit etti. Bu e\u011filim, i\u015f ilanlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 7,9 milyona gerilemesiyle birle\u015fince, Fed\u2019in harekete ge\u00e7ece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki kanaatimizi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm do\u011frultusunda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oranlar\u0131na pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Piyasan\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %75\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatlamas\u0131yla birlikte Aral\u0131k 2026 vadeli SOFR kontratlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yoruz. 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisinin %4,10\u2019un alt\u0131na gerilemesi, bu hareketin devam edecek alan\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi taraf\u0131nda, so\u011fuyan veriler; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u201cyumu\u015fak ini\u015f\u201d ile resesyon senaryosu aras\u0131nda tart\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda belirgin oynakl\u0131k yarat\u0131yor. Bir sonraki T\u00dcFE ve istihdam raporlar\u0131 etraf\u0131nda bekledi\u011fimiz fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in Temmuz ve A\u011fustos vadeli VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) sat\u0131n al\u0131yoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, endeks vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan satarak hedge etmeye k\u0131yasla daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir y\u00f6ntem.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin uzun vadelilere g\u00f6re daha h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmesinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan getiri e\u011frisi dikle\u015fme (steepener) i\u015flemlerini de de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda uzun ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon i\u00e7eren yap\u0131 cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Fed\u2019in gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ba\u015flamas\u0131 ve getiri e\u011frisinin daha normal, yukar\u0131 e\u011fimli yap\u0131s\u0131na d\u00f6nmesiyle bu stratejinin iyi performans g\u00f6stermesi beklenir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de ADP 4 haftal\u0131k ortalama 25,5 bine inerek istihdamda so\u011fumay\u0131 teyit ediyor. Fed\u2019den indirim beklentisi g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken SOFR long art\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor; VIX call ve e\u011fri dikle\u015fme (2Y long\/10Y short) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47670,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48920","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48920","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48920"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48920\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47670"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48920"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48920"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48920"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}