USD\/JPY, UOB\u2019nin son i\u015flemlerin yeni bir y\u00f6n sinyali \u00fcretmedi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekmesiyle 160,30 civar\u0131nda genel olarak yatay seyretti. Paritenin daha \u00f6nce 159,70\u2013160,35 band\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 bekleniyordu; ard\u0131ndan 159,72\u2013160,39 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bir miktar daha y\u00fcksek bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcp g\u00fcn\u00fc 160,32\u2019de %0,07 art\u0131\u015fla tamamlad\u0131. Banka, en yak\u0131n seansta konsolidasyonun s\u00fcrmesini beklerken g\u00fcn i\u00e7i bant tahminini 159,90\u2013160,50 olarak veriyor.<\/p>\n
1\u20133 haftal\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde UOB, 12 Haziran\u2019daki (spot 160,10 iken) de\u011ferlendirmesini koruyor: USD\/JPY\u2019nin 159,40\u2013160,70 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bant hareketi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi olas\u0131. Bu yak\u0131n vadeli \u00e7er\u00e7evenin \u00f6tesinde, momentum zay\u0131f kalsa da daha uzun vadeli grafik formasyonlar\u0131 161,15 civar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckselen takozun \u00fcst band\u0131n\u0131n test edilme ihtimaliyle h\u00e2l\u00e2 uyumlu.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin dar bir bantta s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve k\u0131sa vadede belirgin bir y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta paritenin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak 159,40 ile 160,70 aras\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesini bekliyoruz. Bu konsolidasyon, anlaml\u0131 bir yeni trend olu\u015fmadan \u00f6nce bir \u201csakinle\u015fme\u201d d\u00f6nemine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu dar bant, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatiliteden faydalanan stratejiler i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli; \u00f6rne\u011fin opsiyonlarda strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 veya iron condor. 159,40 civar\u0131nda put, 160,70 yak\u0131n\u0131nda call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 taraf\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz. Ama\u00e7, parite yatay seyrederken prim toplamak ve zaman de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n (theta) lehe \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak.<\/p>\n
Bu y\u00fcksek seviyelerdeki konsolidasyonun temel nedeni, belirgin faiz fark\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor. Son ABD enflasyon verileri %3,3 civar\u0131nda diren\u00e7li kal\u0131rken, Fed politika faizi %5,50 seviyesinde; bu oran Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n %0,1\u2019lik faizinin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde. Geni\u015f fark, dolar\u0131 desteklemeyi ve yenin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralli yapmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, Japon otoritelerinden gelebilecek m\u00fcdahale riski bu seviyelerde yukar\u0131 hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlayan unsur. Paritenin 160 seviyesini ilk kez a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 2024 d\u00f6neminde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yen al\u0131mlar\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 haf\u0131zalarda. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f, psikolojik bir bariyer olu\u015fturarak mevcut band\u0131n \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n
Ana senaryomuz bant hareketi olsa da 161,15 seviyesinin test edilmesi ihtimalini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de olsa g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilitenin %8\u2019in biraz \u00fczerinde g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretmesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 161,00 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece ucuz maliyetle almak, s\u00fcrpriz bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyonlanman\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir yolu olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY\u2019de y\u00f6n arayanlara kritik uyar\u0131: UOB, 160,30 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrin s\u00fcrece\u011fini, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 159,90\u2013160,50; 1\u20133 haftada 159,40\u2013160,70 band\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor, 161,15 riski masada.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47648,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48916","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48916","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48916"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48916\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47648"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48916"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48916"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48916"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}