Ham petrol Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda var\u0131lan bir mutabakata ili\u015fkin ilk ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131labilece\u011fi beklentilerini beslemesi fiyatlar\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131. ABD g\u00f6stergesi West Texas Intermediate (WTI), son d\u00f6rt haftada yakla\u015f\u0131k %25 geriledikten sonra varil ba\u015f\u0131na 77,77 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu seviye Mart ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczey. \u0130srail\u2019in Haaretz gazetesinin s\u00fcrece a\u015fina kaynaklara dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberine g\u00f6re, anla\u015fma kapsam\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019a ait yakla\u015f\u0131k 24 milyar dolarl\u0131k dondurulmu\u015f varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bo\u011faz\u0131n ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti olmaks\u0131z\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Takht Ravanchi, anla\u015fmazl\u0131k konusu n\u00fckleer ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n bir sonraki a\u015famada ele al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; stoklar, uranyum zenginle\u015ftirme ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kapsayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Dikkatler, Amerikan Petrol Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn (API) haftal\u0131k ABD ham petrol stok raporuna da \u00e7evrildi. Raporun, 5 Haziran ile biten haftada 4,5 milyon varillik stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne i\u015faret etmesi bekleniyor; bir \u00f6nceki hafta 9,1 milyon varillik azal\u0131\u015f kaydedilmi\u015fti. Ticari petrol stoklar\u0131 Nisan ortas\u0131ndan bu yana kesintisiz gerilerken, daha geni\u015f fiyatlama dinamikleri arz-talep dengesi, OPEC \u00fcretim politikas\u0131 ve ABD dolar\u0131yla \u015fekillenmeye devam ediyor; stok verileri ise Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA) \u00fczerinden de izleniyor.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 78 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131yla, geli\u015fmekte olan ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir gelecekte piyasay\u0131 y\u00f6nlendiren temel unsur olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lma ihtimali ve \u0130ran varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi, fiyatlar \u00fczerinde belirgin bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu jeopolitik de\u011fi\u015fim, \u015fimdilik geleneksel arz-talep sinyallerinin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7iyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tamamen yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemi abart\u0131lamaz; tarihsel olarak g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varil, yani k\u00fcresel t\u00fcketimin %20\u2019si bu ge\u00e7itten ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131yor. Bu kritik darbo\u011fazdaki tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi, y\u0131llard\u0131r fiyatlar\u0131n i\u00e7ine yerle\u015fmi\u015f olan kayda de\u011fer risk primini ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131yor. Piyasan\u0131n, tedarik zinciri g\u00fcvenli\u011finde iyile\u015fen bu yeni ger\u00e7ekli\u011fi yeni yeni fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Piyasa \u0130ran petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc fiyatlarken, daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde \u00fcretimini g\u00fcnde en az 1 milyon varil art\u0131rabilecek kapasitesi bulunuyor; bu senaryo, 2015 n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 ya\u015fananlara benziyor. Bu olas\u0131 yeni arz dalgas\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ay\u0131 kataliz\u00f6r\u00fc niteli\u011finde.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu ortam, beklenen zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan faydalanmak i\u00e7in WTI ve Brent vadeli kontratlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir strateji haline getiriyor. Fiyatlar gerilerken dahi son bir haftada z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi, piyasan\u0131n daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketleri bekledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Anla\u015fman\u0131n orta vadeli etkisini yakalamak i\u00e7in vadesi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 45 ila 90 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde dolan kontratlara odaklan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD stoklar\u0131nda beklenen 4,5 milyon varillik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f normalde y\u00fckseli\u015f (bullish) bir unsur olsa da, bu etki \u015fu a\u015famada g\u00f6lgede kal\u0131yor. Bu stok \u00e7ekili\u015flerini, yak\u0131nda artacak k\u00fcresel arzla kar\u015f\u0131lanacak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yaz talebini yans\u0131tan ikincil bir fakt\u00f6r olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa ileriye bakar; yar\u0131n daha fazla \u0130ran petrol\u00fc ihtimali, bug\u00fcn ABD\u2019de daha az varil ger\u00e7e\u011finden daha a\u011f\u0131r bas\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan WTI, son %25\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131ras\u0131nda birka\u00e7 kritik destek seviyesini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131rd\u0131. \u015eimdi bir sonraki \u00f6nemli psikolojik ve teknik taban olarak varil ba\u015f\u0131na 75 dolar seviyesini izliyoruz. Bu seviyenin kararl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7ilmesi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 70\u2019li dolar seviyelerine do\u011fru bir geri \u00e7ekilmenin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f derinle\u015fiyor: ABD-\u0130ran mutabakat\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn \u00fccretsiz a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip risk primini siliyor. WTI 77,77 dolara indi. \u0130ran arz\u0131, stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rak\u0131yor; 75 dolar kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47662,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48912","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48912","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48912"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48912\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47662"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48912"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48912"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48912"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}