\u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n AB ile uyumlu T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (HICP), May\u0131s ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda %0,3 artt\u0131 ve %0,4\u2019l\u00fck piyasa beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu veri, AB norm \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcne g\u00f6re ayl\u0131k enflasyon nabz\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha zay\u0131f seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klama, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen %0,3\u2019l\u00fck art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %0,4 beklentiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken, piyasa uzla\u015f\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re 0,1 puanl\u0131k bir sapma olu\u015ftu. Man\u015fet veride ek k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mlar payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131; ancak s\u00fcrpriz, \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n fiyat ivmesine ili\u015fkin k\u0131sa vadeli de\u011ferlendirmeleri etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131nda %0,4 beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 %0,3 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steren son \u0130talya enflasyon verisi, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisinde fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bunu, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) temkinli duru\u015funu peki\u015ftiren bir unsur olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha da azalt\u0131yor. Bu veri, e\u011filim blok geneline yay\u0131l\u0131rsa y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde olas\u0131 bir faiz indirimi arg\u00fcman\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev stratejimiz a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin yatay ya da gerileyici seyrinden fayda sa\u011flayan pozisyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karmam\u0131za neden oluyor. Piyasan\u0131n \u0130talya gibi \u00e7evre ekonomilerden gelebilecek dezenflasyon potansiyelini tam fiyatlamam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnerek Aral\u0131k 2026 Euribor vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda fiyatlamalar\u0131 izliyoruz. Bu, Nisan ay\u0131ndaki genel Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonunun %2,5 seviyesinde olmas\u0131yla da tezat olu\u015fturuyor ve ECB\u2019nin g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edemeyece\u011fi artan bir ayr\u0131\u015fmaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Hisse taraf\u0131nda, bu ortam\u0131n \u0130talya ve genel olarak Avrupa endeksleri i\u00e7in destekleyici oldu\u011funu; \u015fahin bir politika s\u00fcrprizi riskini azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131yla destek taban\u0131 olu\u015fabilece\u011fi beklentisiyle FTSE MIB endeksinde vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 se\u00e7ene\u011fini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, 2016-2017 d\u00f6nemine benzer \u015fekilde keskin bir ekonomik daralma olmadan enflasyonun \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemler volatiliteyi bask\u0131lam\u0131\u015f; bu da VSTOXX call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 da temkinli bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130talya\u2019dan gelen daha zay\u0131f veri, Euro a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan arg\u00fcman\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131flat\u0131yor; ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) h\u00e2l\u00e2 nispeten daha diren\u00e7li enflasyonla m\u00fccadele etti\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu nedenle EUR\/USD put spread al\u0131m\u0131 gibi Euro\u2019da uzun vadeli, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc yap\u0131lar\u0131n kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 anlaml\u0131 buluyoruz. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, Almanya ve ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili getirileri aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n 150 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerine geni\u015flemesiyle de destekleniyor; s\u00f6z konusu ayr\u0131\u015fma, tek para birimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan temel zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz enflasyon freni: \u0130talya HICP May\u0131s\u2019ta %0,3 artarak %0,4 beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131. ECB\u2019de \u015fahinlik riski azal\u0131rken Euribor\u2019da yatay\/geri, FTSE MIB\u2019de put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, EUR\/USD\u2019de put spread g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47684,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48904","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48904","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48904"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48904\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47684"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48904"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48904"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48904"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}