GBP\/USD Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermedi ve piyasalar ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin daha fazla ayr\u0131nt\u0131 ile Federal Rezerv (Fed) ve \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) yakla\u015fan faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 beklerken 1,3400 civar\u0131nda dalgaland\u0131. ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en gemilerin herhangi bir ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti \u00f6demeyece\u011fini ve n\u00fckleer denet\u00e7ilerin \u0130ran\u2019a geri d\u00f6nece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; ancak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Tahran\u2019dan gelecek teyidi bekleyerek temkinli kald\u0131. Fed\u2019in \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc politikay\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesi beklenirken, piyasalar ayn\u0131 zamanda Jerome Powell\u2019a k\u0131yasla daha g\u00fcvercin g\u00f6r\u00fclen Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na odakland\u0131. BoE\u2019nin de Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc faizi sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131 bekleniyor; ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck sinyaller a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ve tutanaklar yak\u0131ndan izlenecek.<\/p>\n
Parite 1,3410 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, son d\u00f6rt haftan\u0131n 1,3300\u20131,3500 band\u0131 i\u00e7inde kald\u0131. Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri zay\u0131f seyrini korudu: 4 saatlik RSI 50 seviyesinde, MACD ise s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n hafif alt\u0131nda bulunuyor. GBP\/USD Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,3460 yak\u0131n\u0131ndan geri d\u00f6nerken, 1,3485\u20131,3505 band\u0131 diren\u00e7; bunun \u00fczerinde 1,3550 civar\u0131 ek bir seviye olarak izleniyor. Destek 1,3380\u2019de, ard\u0131ndan 1,3300\u2019de; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk ise 1,3170\u2019e do\u011fru geni\u015fliyor.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD\u2019nin 1,3400 \u00e7evresindeki karars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bunu potansiyel bir \u201cf\u0131rt\u0131na \u00f6ncesi sessizlik\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Parite konsolidasyon evresine s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda; bu durum genellikle opsiyon primlerinin d\u00fc\u015fmesine yol a\u00e7ar. Bu da merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 ve ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n netle\u015fmesi \u00f6ncesinde volatilite sat\u0131n almak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki riskli g\u00fcndem g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u015fu anda yakla\u015f\u0131k %6,8 ile dip seviyelere yak\u0131n bulunan bir haftal\u0131k ima edilen volatilitenin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Son veriler, ABD \u00c7ekirdek PCE enflasyonunun %2,6\u2019da kal\u0131rken \u0130ngiltere T\u00dcFE\u2019sinin %2,1 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor; bu tablo her iki merkez bankas\u0131na da temkinli durmak i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e sunarken ayn\u0131 zamanda s\u00fcrprize alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, Fed ve BoE toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde GBP\/USD bu kadar yatay seyretti\u011finde, 48 saat i\u00e7inde 150 pipin \u00fczerinde k\u0131r\u0131lma s\u0131kl\u0131kla g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Yeni Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019ndan beklenen g\u00fcvercin ton dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131na neden olabilir ve 1,3500 direncine do\u011fru bir yol a\u00e7abilir. ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 da risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rarak, g\u00fcvenli liman olarak dolara olan talebi azalt\u0131p dolar \u00fczerinde ilave bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Bu nedenle, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmaya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in 1,3550 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeye bak\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, \u00f6zellikle BoE\u2019nin oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n beklentiden daha \u015fahin bir duru\u015fa i\u015faret etmesi halinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lma riski g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemez. 1,3300 deste\u011finin alt\u0131na bir hareket h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde ivmelenebilir. Bunu dengelemek i\u00e7in, her iki y\u00f6nde anlaml\u0131 bir fiyat hareketinden faydalanmak \u00fczere hem al\u0131m (call) hem sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu alarak \u201cuzun strangle\u201d stratejilerini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00f6zler Fed ve BoE\u2019de: GBP\/USD 1,3400\u2019da sessiz. ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 netle\u015fmeden temkin s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ima volatilite \u201cf\u0131rt\u0131na \u00f6ncesi\u201d sinyali; 1,3500\/1,3300 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na opsiyonla pozisyon.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47666,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48903","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48903","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48903"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48903\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47666"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48903"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48903"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48903"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}