USD\/JPY, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda yenin Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) politika karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan daha iyi performans g\u00f6stermesiyle gerileyerek 160,25 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. BoJ, faizi 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %1\u2019e y\u00fckseltti ve enflasyonun hedefin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini belirterek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma e\u011filiminin s\u00fcrece\u011fine i\u015faret etti. \u00d6te yandan ABD dolar\u0131, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa a\u00e7\u0131k bir konumdayd\u0131; Fed\u2019in d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc toplant\u0131 \u00fcst \u00fcste faizi %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 beklenirken, dikkatler Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda olacak.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta parite 160,34 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (EMA) 159,77 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc pozitif korudu. RSI 60,42 seviyesinde olup pozitif b\u00f6lgede kalmakla birlikte a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m seviyelerinin alt\u0131nda bulunuyor. Destek 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA olan 159,77\u2019de; bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, 20 May\u0131s dip seviyesi 158,60\u2019a do\u011fru alan a\u00e7abilir. Yukar\u0131da ise 30 Nisan zirvesi 160,73\u2019\u00fcn a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 161,00 seviyesini g\u00fcndeme getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizi %1\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesi ve yeni art\u0131\u015f sinyali vermesiyle Yen i\u00e7in temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm de\u011fi\u015fti. Uzun s\u00fcredir dolar\u0131 destekleyen politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun yeni f\u0131rsatlar yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, Yen\u2019in yeni bir g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor ve USD\/JPY\u2019de ilave anlaml\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir olay riski yarat\u0131yor ve oynakl\u0131kta s\u0131\u00e7rama bekliyoruz. Opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda bir ayl\u0131k vadelerde ima edilen oynakl\u0131k h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda yakla\u015f\u0131k %9,5 seviyesinde seyrederken, Ba\u015fkan Warsh\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckselmesi muhtemel. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan her iki y\u00f6nde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in straddle gibi opsiyon stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
BoJ\u2019un \u015fahin duru\u015fu dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, potansiyel Yen g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine (yani USD\/JPY\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete) pozisyonlanman\u0131n de\u011fer sundu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama olan 159,77\u2019yi kritik bir pivot seviye olarak izliyoruz. Bu seviyenin alt\u0131na kararl\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m, uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesini tetikleyebilir; bu durumda 158,60 hedefi i\u00e7in sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 veya put spread\u2019ler cazip bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli trend yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kalmaya devam ediyor ve \u00f6zellikle Fed\u2019in beklenmedik \u015fekilde g\u00fcvercin tonda konu\u015fmas\u0131 halinde momentum pariteyi daha yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. 160,73\u2019teki son zirvenin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 161,00 psikolojik seviyesine kap\u0131 aralayacakt\u0131r. Bu senaryo i\u00e7in, riski net bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlarken yukar\u0131 potansiyeli yakalamak amac\u0131yla al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kullan\u0131r\u0131z.<\/p>\n
Carry trade\u2019in \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi art\u0131k USD\/JPY\u2019de uzun pozisyonda olanlar i\u00e7in ba\u015fl\u0131ca risklerden biri. Tarihsel olarak BoJ\u2019un gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131ndan uzakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nceki d\u00f6ng\u00fclerde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclme h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert olabilmi\u015f, ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki \u201cflash crash\u201d benzeri olaylara benzer \u015fekilde. Japonya\u2019da faizin %1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, Yen bor\u00e7lan\u0131p dolar alma cazibesini belirgin bi\u00e7imde azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara y\u00f6nelik stratejimiz, artan belirsizli\u011fi opsiyonlarla y\u00f6netmek. 160,00 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 etraf\u0131nda hem put hem call taraf\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyon (open interest) birikimi g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da piyasan\u0131n bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, ani duyarl\u0131l\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 sermayeyi korurken harekete pozisyon almak i\u00e7in risk reversal veya strangle gibi stratejileri kullanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BoJ\u2019un 25 bp art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla Yen g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131, USD\/JPY 160,25\u2019e indi: Trendde k\u0131r\u0131lma m\u0131? Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi oynakl\u0131k y\u00fckseliyor; 159,77 alt\u0131 158,60, 160,73 \u00fcst\u00fc 161,00.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47883,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48900","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48900","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48900"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48900\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47883"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48900"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48900"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48900"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}