EUR\/USD, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Federal Rezerv (Fed) faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,1580\u2019e geriledi. Dolar Endeksi (DXY) %0,1 art\u0131\u015fla 99,75 civar\u0131na y\u00fckselirken, CME FedWatch fiyatlamalar\u0131 faizlerin 3,50%\u20133,75% band\u0131nda \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc toplant\u0131da da sabit tutulaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Fed, y\u0131lda sekiz planl\u0131 toplant\u0131 \u00fczerinden para politikas\u0131n\u0131 belirliyor; tam istihdam hedefiyle birlikte %2 enflasyonu ama\u00e7l\u0131yor ve faiz de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011finde piyasa oda\u011f\u0131 genellikle Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n tonuna kay\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Euro, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya gidebilece\u011fi beklentileriyle y\u00fcksek beta para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 daha diren\u00e7li seyrederken, parite teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. EUR\/USD, 1,1599\u2019daki 20 periyotluk \u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (EMA) alt\u0131nda ve 1,1849\u2019dan \u00e7izilen a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc diren\u00e7 \u00e7izgisinin alt\u0131nda seyrederken, fiyat 1,1409\u2019daki \u00f6nceki deste\u011fin \u00fczerinde tutunmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 44 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 1,1600, ard\u0131ndan 1,1687 ve 1,1849 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken; destekler 1,1506 ve 1,1409\u2019da belirtildi.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD paritesinin 1,0850 seviyesi \u00e7evresinde zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 ikna edici bi\u00e7imde geri alamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ana odak, piyasada temkinli bir hava yaratan yakla\u015fan Fed politika duyurusu. Veriye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 bir Fed ile h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u015fahin duru\u015funu koruyan ECB aras\u0131ndaki bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 \u015fu anda temel tema konumunda.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in politika faizini 4,75%-5,00% aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bekleniyor; CME FedWatch Tool, \u201csabit\u201d senaryosuna %90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde olas\u0131l\u0131k atfediyor. Ancak son ABD enflasyon verisi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,8\u2019e gerileyerek bir miktar so\u011fudu ve bu durum piyasalar\u0131n y\u0131l sonundan \u00f6nce faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu zemin yumu\u015fakl\u0131\u011f\u0131, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n belirgin kazan\u00e7lar \u00fcretmesini engelliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan euro, ECB\u2019nin daha uzun s\u00fcre k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 kalmas\u0131 gerekebilece\u011fi beklentilerinden destek buluyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu yap\u0131\u015fkan seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; son Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (HICP) %3,1 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor. ABD g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcyle bu kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131k, EUR\/USD\u2019nin dar bir bantta kalmas\u0131n\u0131n temel nedeni.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, bu belirsizlik EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli z\u0131mni volatilitede belirgin bir art\u0131\u015fa neden oluyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, paritenin kritik hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 ve RSI\u2019\u0131n 50 orta \u00e7izgisinin hemen alt\u0131nda konumlanmas\u0131yla \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bi\u00e7imde negatif. Bu da olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerin k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funa ve sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc elinde tutabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik zay\u0131fl\u0131k ve Fed\u2019den beklenenden daha \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u201d bir ton gelmesi riskini dikkate alarak, put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n veya a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc put spread stratejilerinin ihtiyatl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 1,0800\u2019deki kritik destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya pozisyon almas\u0131na imk\u00e2n verirken riski net bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Tarihsel olarak RSI\u2019\u0131n benzer \u015fekilde 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda zay\u0131f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde parite, takip eden haftalarda daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 destek seviyelerini s\u0131k\u00e7a test etmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilecek g\u00fcvercin bir s\u00fcrpriz bekleyenler i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek z\u0131mni volatilite, nakit teminatl\u0131 put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 stratejisini riskli k\u0131l\u0131yor. Olas\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 hareket i\u00e7in daha uygun bir strateji, \u201czarar\u0131na\u201d (out-of-the-money) call opsiyonu sat\u0131n almak olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, Fed\u2019in gev\u015feme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde net bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f (pivot) sinyali vermesi halinde ya\u015fanabilecek sert bir ralliye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle kat\u0131lma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi EUR\/USD 1,1580\u2019e sarkt\u0131: DXY g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken piyasa \u201csabit faiz\u201de kilitlendi. ECB\u2019nin \u015fahinli\u011fi euroyu tutsa da teknik bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; volatilite, opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48895","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48895","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48895"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48895\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48895"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48895"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48895"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}