GBP\/USD, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 1,3400 civar\u0131nda seyrederken \u00f6nceki g\u00fcnk\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi; ABD Dolar\u0131 ise ABD\u2013\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine dair yeni geli\u015fmelere y\u00f6nelik temkinli duru\u015ftan destek buldu. Washington veya Tahran taraf\u0131ndan resm\u00ee bir anla\u015fma metni yay\u0131mlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, b\u00fcy\u00fck deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015firketleri daha fazla \u015feffafl\u0131k sa\u011flanana kadar H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden gemileri yeniden y\u00f6nlendirmeyi erteledi; bu durum daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 pozisyonlanmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutuyor.<\/p>\n
Parite haftaya, ate\u015fkes haberleri ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi ve risk duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek para birimlerini desteklemesiyle 1,3450 civar\u0131na uzanan risk i\u015ftah\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla ba\u015flad\u0131; ancak hareket daha sonra tersine d\u00f6nerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3400\u2019e \u00e7ekildi. S\u00f6z konusu de\u011fi\u015fimi destekleyen \u00e7er\u00e7eve \u201c\u00f6n\u201d nitelikte tarif ediliyor: 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131m\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131n sonraki m\u00fczakerelere b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 ve resm\u00ee imzan\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcne planlanmas\u0131 gibi unsurlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Petrol yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 gerilerken, daha geni\u015f piyasa tepkisi daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; al\u0131mlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn ge\u00e7en hafta ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi ve oda\u011f\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131na kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Sterlinin ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 haberleriyle ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fin tamamen geri verilmesi, piyasan\u0131n \u015f\u00fcpheci oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. D\u00fc\u015fen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 rahatlama ge\u00e7ici kald\u0131 ve odak art\u0131k Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na kay\u0131yor. 1,3450\u2019den ba\u015flayan ve 1,3400\u2019e d\u00f6nen bu ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z ralli, altta yatan dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn net bir g\u00f6stergesi.<\/p>\n
Ate\u015fkesin ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik ve yakla\u015fan Fed karar\u0131 nedeniyle volatilitenin artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Nitekim GBP\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite ge\u00e7en hafta yakla\u015f\u0131k %7 seviyesinden %8,5\u2019e y\u00fckselerek daha geni\u015f fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu dalgalanmadan faydalanan ya da sert bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareketten kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan stratejilerin art\u0131k daha cazip oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar\u0131 destekleyen bir di\u011fer unsur, son ABD T\u00dcFE verisinin %3,5 ile beklentilerin biraz \u00fczerinde gelmesi oldu; bu da Fed\u2019in faiz indiriminde acele etmeyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc peki\u015ftiriyor. Piyasa, Fed\u2019in bu hafta faizi sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %85 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor ve \u015fahin bir tonun korunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, %2,1 ile \u0130ngiltere enflasyonunun \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 hedeflerine \u00e7ok daha yak\u0131n seyretmesiyle tezat olu\u015fturuyor; bu da BoE\u2019ye daha g\u00fcvercin bir duru\u015f i\u00e7in alan tan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda GBP\/USD\u2019nin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket edebilece\u011fi patikan\u0131n temel nedenlerinden biri. 2022-2023 d\u00f6neminde agresif Fed politikas\u0131n\u0131n belirgin dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi yaratmas\u0131n\u0131, bir sonraki ad\u0131mda ya\u015fanabilecekler i\u00e7in tarihsel bir referans olarak ele al\u0131yoruz. Bu nedenle, 1,3300 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir sarkmay\u0131 fiyatlamak ad\u0131na put opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131nda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, \u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 jeopolitik risklerin fark\u0131nda olunmas\u0131 gerekiyor. \u0130lk piyasa tepkisi s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenmi\u015f olsa da, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc resm\u00ee imza ya da H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik somut ad\u0131mlar k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli yeni bir risk-on rallisini tetikleyebilir. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 daha iyi fiyatlardan art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
GBP\/USD\u2019de ralli s\u00f6nd\u00fc: 1,3450\u2019den 1,3400\u2019e geri \u00e7ekilme dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc teyit ediyor. \u0130ran belirsizli\u011fi ve Fed \u00f6ncesi volatilite art\u0131yor; politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 1,3300 alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47642,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48894","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48894","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48894"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48894\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47642"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48894"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48894"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48894"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}