USD\/CHF, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck kay\u0131plar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Asya i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,7950 seviyesine do\u011fru hafif y\u00fckseldi. ABD Dolar\u0131 yatay seyrini korurken, piyasalar \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme kavu\u015fmayan n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik nedeniyle temkinli kald\u0131. Ne Washington ne de Tahran resmi bir anla\u015fma metni yay\u0131mlad\u0131; b\u00fcy\u00fck armat\u00f6rler de netlik sa\u011flanana kadar H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden yeniden rota planlar\u0131n\u0131 geciktiriyor. Donald Trump, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 sona erdirmek ve ablukadaki bo\u011faz\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mak i\u00e7in bir mutabakat muht\u0131ras\u0131n\u0131n imzaland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Mehr haber ajans\u0131 ise tasla\u011f\u0131n, \u0130ran d\u00fczenlemeleri alt\u0131nda 30 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yeniden a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bildirdi.<\/p>\n
Dikkatler ayr\u0131ca Federal Rezerv\u2019e \u00e7evrilmi\u015f durumda. Fed\u2019in \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc politika faizini %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ABD\u2019de enflasyon endi\u015felerini beslerken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar yeni ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh y\u00f6netimindeki y\u00f6nlendirmeler i\u00e7in bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 izleyecek. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerileme enflasyon beklentilerini bir miktar yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131; para piyasalar\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (SNB) ilave bir faiz de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi fiyatlam\u0131yor. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de \u00dcretici ve \u0130thalat Fiyatlar\u0131 May\u0131s\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,8 geriledi (Nisan: %2,0 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f). Endeks ayl\u0131k bazda ise beklentilerdeki %0,4 art\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131n %0,4 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve Nisan\u2019daki %0,8\u2019lik y\u00fckseli\u015fi tersine \u00e7evirdi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin temkinli duru\u015f s\u00fcrerken ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc korudu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n geri d\u00f6nmesi i\u00e7in H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 anla\u015fmas\u0131na dair tam \u015feffafl\u0131k gerekiyor; bu da g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 USD\u2019ye y\u00f6nlendirmeye devam ediyor. Bu tablo, k\u0131sa vadede USD\/CHF i\u00e7in y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimimizi destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Odak noktam\u0131z art\u0131k yar\u0131nki Federal Rezerv toplant\u0131s\u0131; yeni Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n ilk bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 kritik olacak. Faizde sabit kalma senaryosu fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f olsa da enflasyona ili\u015fkin \u015fahin sinyaller dolar\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Tarihsel olarak yeni bir Fed ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n ilk a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, maj\u00f6r paritelerde ima edilen volatiliteyi %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde art\u0131rd\u0131; bu da opsiyon stratejilerinin uygun olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer tarafta \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131, \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,8 gerilemesiyle belirginle\u015fen deflasyonist bask\u0131lar alt\u0131nda. SNB\u2019nin 2026\u2019n\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda da bekle-g\u00f6r konumunda kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yayg\u0131nla\u015f\u0131yor; bu da franka destek veren \u00f6nemli bir unsuru zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. SNB ile potansiyel olarak enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 tetikte bir Fed aras\u0131ndaki bu para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, vadesi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7-d\u00f6rt hafta i\u00e7inde olan USD\/CHF al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n cazip bir risk-getiri profili sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu enstr\u00fcmanlar, ya Fed\u2019den gelebilecek \u015fahin bir s\u00fcrpriz ya da \u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerinde bozulma halinde olu\u015fabilecek yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi yakalayabilir. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda 2019\u2019daki tanker olaylar\u0131 gibi benzer jeopolitik gerilimler, g\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda %15\u2019e varan s\u0131\u00e7ramalara yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131; bu da ABD\u2019de enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131rarak dolar\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n tamamen teyit edilmesi ve piyasa gerilimini azaltmas\u0131 halinde sert bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na da haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. Bu ikili risk yap\u0131s\u0131, Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde USD\/CHF\u2019te uzun straddle gibi volatilite bazl\u0131 stratejileri ilgi \u00e7ekici bir alternatif haline getiriyor. B\u00f6yle bir pozisyon, fiyat\u0131n her iki y\u00f6nde de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareket etmesi halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayarak, yeni Fed y\u00f6netiminden gelebilecek ani g\u00fcvercin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sunar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar diken \u00fcst\u00fcnde: USD\/CHF, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz belirsizli\u011fi ve Fed \u00f6ncesi 0,7950\u2019ye y\u00fckseliyor. \u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 net de\u011fil; enerji-enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. SNB\u2019de deflasyon frang\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131rken opsiyon\/volatilite stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48892","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48892","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48892"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48892\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48892"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48892"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48892"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}