Rabobank, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda bir uzla\u015f\u0131ya y\u00f6nelik ilerleme haberlerinin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin riskleri ortadan kald\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti; zira yaln\u0131zca k\u0131sa bir muht\u0131ra \u00fczerinde anla\u015fmaya var\u0131ld\u0131 ve temel ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar h\u00e2l\u00e2 netle\u015fmedi. Banka, ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ne zaman normale d\u00f6nebilece\u011fine dair \u00e7eli\u015fkili beklentilere dikkat \u00e7ekti: Bir ABD yetkilisi enerjinin yeniden akmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 i\u00e7in 1\u20132 hafta \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, denizcilik uzmanlar\u0131 40\u201350 g\u00fcnden s\u00f6z etti. Buna ra\u011fmen, bo\u011fazda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f gemilerin \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fa y\u00f6nelmesi halinde kargolar\u0131n nihai pazarlara ula\u015fmas\u0131 haftalar alabilir; ancak bu sabah \u00fc\u00e7 \u0130ran petrol tankeri ile temel mallar ta\u015f\u0131yan iki geminin ABD deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bildirildi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, ABD ile 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck m\u00fczakere d\u00f6neminde gemilerin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019den serbest\u00e7e ge\u00e7ebilece\u011fini, ancak sonras\u0131nda fiilen ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti (tahsilat) uygulayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; Washington bu tutuma kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Rabobank, bu takvimin, rotadan \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra yeniden bo\u011faza d\u00f6nmeyi de\u011ferlendiren ham petrol tankerleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan operasyonel belirsizlik yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savundu. Ayr\u0131ca Tahran\u2019\u0131n vaat edilen kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 elde edememesi halinde aylar i\u00e7inde bir kopu\u015f riski bulundu\u011funu; bunun, K\u00f6rfez \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi Konseyi \u00fclkeleri alternatif tedarik zincirleri geli\u015ftirirken ge\u00e7i\u015fi a\u00e7\u0131k tutma te\u015fviklerini zay\u0131flatabilece\u011fini vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran uzla\u015f\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin man\u015fetlere tepki verdi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; ancak ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar petrol ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan y\u00fcksek belirsizli\u011fe i\u015faret ediyor. \u00c7eli\u015fkili haberler, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n iki haftadan neredeyse iki aya kadar uzayabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu zamanlama fark\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na bile \u00f6nemli bir potansiyel oynakl\u0131k kayna\u011f\u0131.<\/p>\n
Risk \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck; ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019ne g\u00f6re k\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %21\u2019i bu tek bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7iyor. Brent petrol \u015fu s\u0131ralar varil ba\u015f\u0131na 84 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken, olas\u0131 bir fiili kesinti belirgin bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Piyasadaki mevcut s\u00fck\u00fbnetin k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011fu ve m\u00fczakerelerde geri ad\u0131m riskinin ger\u00e7ek boyutunu fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak b\u00f6lgede jeopolitik \u015foklar sert ve ani fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na neden oldu. \u00d6rne\u011fin, Eyl\u00fcl 2019\u2019daki Suudi Arabistan petrol tesislerine y\u00f6nelik dron sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 Brent vadeli i\u015flemlerini tek g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k %15 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck takvimi, benzer\u2014hatta daha b\u00fcy\u00fck\u2014arz kaynakl\u0131 bir \u015fok potansiyeli bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, WTI ve Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde para d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) al\u0131m\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz. Bu opsiyonlar, anla\u015fman\u0131n t\u00f6kezlemesi halinde sert bir yukar\u0131 fiyat hareketine maruz kalmak i\u00e7in g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir yol sunuyor. \u00d6zellikle \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck m\u00fczakere penceresinin \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7en, A\u011fustos sonu ve Eyl\u00fcl 2026 vadeli kontratlar\u0131 hedefliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Temel risk, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n 60 g\u00fcn sonras\u0131nda ge\u00e7i\u015fe \u201ctahsilat\/\u00fccret\u201d getirme tehdidi; ABD\u2019nin buna kesinlikle kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 beklenir. Bu, uzla\u015f\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zebilecek net bir jeopolitik gerilim noktas\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Opsiyon piyasas\u0131n\u0131n, bu spesifik olay\u0131n yeniden \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya yol a\u00e7ma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 h\u00e2len d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ham petrol\u00fcn \u00f6tesinde, deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 taraf\u0131nda da dikkate de\u011fer bir boyut var. Tanker operat\u00f6rleri bo\u011faza geri d\u00f6nme riskini al\u0131p almama konusunda zor bir tercih ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya; bu da sava\u015f riski sigortas\u0131 primlerini ve navlunlar\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Bu durum, b\u00fcy\u00fck tanker \u015firketlerinin hisselerinde i\u015flem f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 do\u011furabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Man\u015fetler rahatlat\u0131yor ama H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: Rabobank\u2019a g\u00f6re yaln\u0131z muht\u0131ra var, ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar belirsiz. Normalle\u015fme 1\u20132 hafta m\u0131 40\u201350 g\u00fcn m\u00fc? 60 g\u00fcn sonras\u0131 \u201c\u00fccret\u201d tehdidi Brent\u2019te sert s\u0131\u00e7rama yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47644,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48887","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48887","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48887"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48887\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47644"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48887"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48887"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48887"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}