Alt\u0131n Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde y\u00fckseldi ve ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 sona erdirmeyi ama\u00e7layan bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve \u00fczerinde anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan rallisini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; bu geli\u015fme enflasyon endi\u015felerini yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Bir mutabakat zapt\u0131n\u0131n elektronik olarak imzaland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirilirken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131smen a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc tam yeniden a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f planland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 ayr\u0131ca ABD\u2019de daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 beklentilerinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti: CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in z\u0131mni olas\u0131l\u0131k, ge\u00e7en hafta yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 seviyesinden %58\u2019e geriledi.<\/p>\n
Taraflar\u0131n su yolunda \u201c\u00fccret\u201d al\u0131n\u0131p al\u0131nmayaca\u011f\u0131 gibi operasyonel ayr\u0131nt\u0131larda farkl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler dile getirmesi nedeniyle belirsizlik s\u00fcrd\u00fc; ABD\u2019li yetkililer, nihai bir n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lamamas\u0131 halinde yeniden askeri harek\u00e2t uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Fed\u2019in \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc politika karar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 bekleniyor; ekonomistler politika faizinin %3,50-%3,75 band\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD, Bollinger orta band\u0131n\u0131n ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda seyrederken RSI 43 civar\u0131nda; diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 4.363, 4.415, 4.685 ve 4.762 dolar olarak, destek ise 4.145 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00f6sterildi.<\/p>\n
Son ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7er\u00e7eve anla\u015fmas\u0131, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ve dolar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerek enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmas\u0131 nedeniyle alt\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. Bunu, aylard\u0131r biriken jeopolitik risk priminin piyasalar taraf\u0131ndan geri fiyatlanmas\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, Hazine tahvil getirileri d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde fayda sa\u011flayan alt\u0131n i\u00e7in destekleyici bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte temkinli olmak gerekiyor; anla\u015fma k\u0131r\u0131lgan ve iki taraf da kilit maddelere ili\u015fkin farkl\u0131 versiyonlar sunuyor. Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n nihai bir mutabakata var\u0131lmamas\u0131 halinde askeri sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 yeniden ba\u015flatma tehdidi \u00f6nemli bir \u201cba\u015fl\u0131k riski\u201d yarat\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, bu t\u00fcr \u00f6n anla\u015fmalar h\u0131zla \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclebiliyor; bu da mevcut piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sert bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Gerilimin azalmas\u0131 Fed politika beklentilerini do\u011frudan etkiledi; Aral\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %70\u2019ten %58\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. D\u00fcnya petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tamamen yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dezenflasyonist etki yaratabilir ve bu da merkez bankas\u0131na yar\u0131n i\u00e7in bekle-g\u00f6r duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme gerek\u00e7esi sa\u011flayabilir. Bu ortam, yak\u0131n vadede alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan temel olarak destekleyici.<\/p>\n
Olumlu haberlere ra\u011fmen teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimli kal\u0131yor; fiyat, kritik 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda. Bu durum bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma yarat\u0131yor ve z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalma ihtimali nedeniyle opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli. 4.145 dolar civar\u0131ndaki deste\u011fin alt\u0131nda, vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put spread\u2019leri satarak primi toplamak ve riski tan\u0131mlamak bir se\u00e7enek olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu rallinin ivme ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131na inanan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in, 4.415 dolar civar\u0131ndaki dirence do\u011fru bir hareketi hedeflemek \u00fczere y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread etkili bir strateji olabilir. Bu, siyasi durumun bozulmas\u0131 halinde olas\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131rken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flar. Daha net bir trend olu\u015fana kadar spread\u2019lerin tan\u0131ml\u0131 risk yap\u0131s\u0131 daha ihtiyatl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m sunar.<\/p>\n
Tersine, fiyat 9 Haziran zirvesi olan 4.363 dolardaki ilk direnci a\u015famazsa, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret edebilir. Bu senaryoda bu ralli, sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Put sat\u0131n almak veya ay\u0131 (bear) put spread olu\u015fturmak, alt Bollinger band\u0131n\u0131n yeniden test edilmesine oynayan mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir hamle olur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7er\u00e7eve anla\u015fmas\u0131 enflasyon korkusunu t\u00f6rp\u00fclerken H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn kademeli a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 risk primini azalt\u0131yor. Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentisi geriliyor; teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ise zay\u0131f.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47828,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48886","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48886","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48886"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48886\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47828"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48886"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48886"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48886"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}