USD\/JPY, iki seansl\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde gerileyerek 160,10 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Japon Yeni, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) son politika karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131rken parite bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. BoJ, iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck de\u011ferlendirme toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n sonunda k\u0131sa vadeli faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %1\u2019e y\u00fckseltti; bu ad\u0131m piyasa beklentileriyle uyumlu oldu\u011fundan pariteyi geri ad\u0131m att\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, paritedeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilir. ABD Dolar\u0131, ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ili\u015fkin gelecek ek haberler \u00f6ncesindeki temkinli duru\u015fla destek buluyor. Ne Washington ne de Tahran resmi bir anla\u015fma metni yay\u0131mlad\u0131; b\u00fcy\u00fck denizcilik hatlar\u0131 da daha fazla \u015feffafl\u0131k sa\u011flanana kadar H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden gemi rotalar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden d\u00fczenlemeyi erteliyor. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 sona erdirmek ve su yolunu yeniden a\u00e7mak i\u00e7in bir mutabakat zapt\u0131n\u0131n (MoU) imzaland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylerken, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yar\u0131 resmi Mehr haber ajans\u0131 tasla\u011f\u0131n \u0130ran d\u00fczenlemeleri kapsam\u0131nda 30 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yeniden a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bildirdi. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Fed\u2019in \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc faizleri %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131 yayg\u0131n beklenti.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY paritesinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir rallinin ard\u0131ndan geri \u00e7ekildi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; ancak belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. BoJ, Yen\u2019e bir miktar destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor, fakat politika normalle\u015fmesi son derece kademeli ilerliyor. Bu temel dinamik, parite i\u00e7in en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n\u00fcn yukar\u0131 olmaya devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
BoJ yak\u0131n zamanda negatif faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131 sonland\u0131rarak politika faizini %0-%0,1 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; ancak ilave art\u0131\u015flar konusunda son derece temkinli sinyaller verdi. Japon enflasyonu %2,5\u2019in hemen \u00fczerinde seyrederken, merkez bankas\u0131 devasa tahvil al\u0131m program\u0131n\u0131 da yaln\u0131zca yava\u015f yava\u015f k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclt\u00fcyor. 2026\u2019n\u0131n bu d\u00f6nemine gelindi\u011finde dahi BoJ politika faizinin muhtemelen %0,50\u2019yi a\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ABD ile b\u00fcy\u00fck bir politika fark\u0131n\u0131n korunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Fed 2023 zirvelerinden ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tamamlam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de politika faizi %3,00-%3,25 band\u0131 civar\u0131nda sa\u011flam kal\u0131yor. 2,5 y\u00fczde puan\u0131 a\u015fan bu faiz fark\u0131, Yen bor\u00e7lan\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek getirili ABD dolar\u0131na yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmay\u0131 i\u00e7eren carry trade i\u015flemleri i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir te\u015fvik yarat\u0131yor. Bu temel etken, USD\/JPY kurunun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya devam edecek.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik riskler de g\u00fcvenli liman niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yan ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hatlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin s\u00fcregelen gerilimler enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 oynak tutarken, Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrediyor. Bu belirsizlik, dolar cinsi varl\u0131klara sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik ederek para biriminde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca Fed\u2019in kendi i\u00e7inde de bir belirsizlik d\u00f6nemine yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz; Ba\u015fkan Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresinin dolmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Piyasa, yeniden atanmas\u0131 ya da yerine gelecek isimle ilgili haberlere duyarl\u0131 olacak; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fi bir oynakl\u0131k yarat\u0131yor. Bu liderlik ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, dolara fayda sa\u011flayan temkin unsuruna bir katman daha ekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu arka planla, risk y\u00f6netimi sa\u011flarken USD\/JPY\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc ifade etmek i\u00e7in opsiyonlar\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) JPY call\/USD put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmak, paritenin sert d\u00fc\u015fmeyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u00fczerinden prim toplamaya imk\u00e2n verir. Bu strateji, jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve Fed belirsizli\u011finin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 oynakl\u0131ktan faydalan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
2022-2023 d\u00f6neminde faiz fark\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda benzer bir kurulum g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck; bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 pariteyi 115\u2019ten 150\u2019nin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Tarihsel \u00f6rnek, geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc s\u00fcrece Yen \u00fczerindeki temel bask\u0131n\u0131n devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda keskin ve kal\u0131c\u0131 JPY de\u011ferlenmesini olas\u0131 k\u0131lm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BoJ\u2019un 25 bp faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla USD\/JPY 160,10\u2019a \u00e7ekildi; ancak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilir. Fed\u2019in sabit duru\u015fu, geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131 ve jeopolitik riskler dolar\u0131 destekleyerek carry trade\u2019i canl\u0131 tutuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47826,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48883","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48883","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48883"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48883\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47826"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48883"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48883"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48883"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}