USD\/CAD, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ili\u015fkin yeni haberler \u00f6ncesinde dengelenmesiyle Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya saatlerinde 1,3990 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc seans y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Her iki taraf\u0131n da resmi bir anla\u015fma metni yay\u0131mlamamas\u0131 nedeniyle, b\u00fcy\u00fck deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015firketleri netlik olu\u015fana kadar H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden yeniden y\u00f6nlendirme kararlar\u0131n\u0131 erteledi. Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 sona erdirmek ve su yolunu yeniden a\u00e7mak i\u00e7in bir mutabakat zapt\u0131n\u0131n imzaland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yar\u0131 resmi Mehr ajans\u0131 ise son tasla\u011f\u0131n, \u0130ran d\u00fczenlemeleri \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde 30 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bildirdi.<\/p>\n
Kanada Dolar\u0131, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 para birimini zay\u0131flatmas\u0131 ve enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon \u015foku endi\u015felerini azaltmas\u0131yla bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Tahvil faizleri de gerileyerek, y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri ve enflasyon hedefi %1-%3 olan Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin kayg\u0131lar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Dikkatler \u015fimdi, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc faizleri %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 beklenen Fed\u2019e \u00e7evrildi; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh\u2019un bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda verece\u011fi sinyalleri izleyecek.<\/p>\n
USD\/CAD paritesinin kritik 1,4000 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyrini korudu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda en olas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn yukar\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ba\u015fl\u0131ca s\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc, Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferini do\u011frudan etkileyen petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131k. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol\u00fcn k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce varil ba\u015f\u0131na 75 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inmesi\u2014aylard\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen bir seviye\u2014CAD \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ki merkez bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 da USD\/CAD\u2019in g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini destekliyor. Fed\u2019in faizini g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 beklenirken, enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonun gev\u015femesi nedeniyle BoC\u2019nin ayn\u0131 h\u0131zda s\u0131k\u0131 kalma bask\u0131s\u0131 azal\u0131yor. ABD dolar\u0131nda pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131lan bu geni\u015fleyen faiz fark\u0131, 2022-2023 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere tarihsel olarak USD\/CAD\u2019i yukar\u0131 itmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu ortam, jeopolitik belirsizlik nedeniyle riskin tan\u0131ml\u0131 oldu\u011fu ancak y\u00fckselen USD\/CAD\u2019den faydalanan stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Paritede kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 1,4100 civar\u0131nda olan ve vadesi Temmuz sonuna denk gelen call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamay\u0131 sa\u011flarken; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki durumun sorunsuz \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131 halinde azami zarar\u0131 \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Hem yeni Fed ba\u015fkan\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik hem de ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n nihai metnine dair mu\u011flakl\u0131k, d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. \u00d6rne\u011fin USD\/CAD bir ayl\u0131k opsiyonlarda ima edilen volatilite %8,5\u2019in \u00fczerine t\u0131rman\u0131rken, ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte %6,0 seviyelerine daha yak\u0131nd\u0131. Bu durum opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rsa da, sert hareket riski ve potansiyelini yans\u0131tarak y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir pozisyon i\u00e7in maliyeti gerek\u00e7elendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda, pozisyonun pe\u015fin maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in bo\u011fa call spread\u2019lerini de de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. \u00d6rne\u011fin uzun 1,4100 call\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 1,4250 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 daha yukar\u0131 bir call satmak, net primi azaltabilir. Bu, potansiyel k\u00e2r\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar ancak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftada paritede \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fe daha sermaye verimli bi\u00e7imde pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CAD 1,4000\u2019e dayand\u0131: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz belirsizli\u011fi, zay\u0131flayan petrol ve Fed-BoC ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 CAD\u2019i bask\u0131l\u0131yor. \u0130vme yukar\u0131; oynakl\u0131k artarken 1,4100 call veya bo\u011fa call spread stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48879","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48879","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48879"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48879\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48879"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48879"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48879"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}