\u00c7in\u2019in May\u0131s ay\u0131 aktivite verileri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir tablo sundu. Perakende sat\u0131\u015flar y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %0,6 gerileyerek %0\u2019l\u0131k beklentiyi ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131 ve Nisan\u2019daki %0,2\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirdi. Sanayi \u00fcretimi ise, %4,3 beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k %4,5 artt\u0131 ve \u00f6nceki %4,1 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 (YTD) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %-4,1\u2019e zay\u0131flad\u0131; bu, %-2,0\u2019lik piyasa uzla\u015f\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ve Nisan\u2019daki %-1,6\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Verilerin ard\u0131ndan AUD\/USD g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,18 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 0,7060 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bu veriler Avustralya Dolar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli; zira \u00c7in, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 ve \u00c7in talebindeki de\u011fi\u015fimler, RBA tek ba\u015f\u0131na \u00c7in verilerine g\u00f6re politika belirlemese bile, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc etkileyebiliyor. Grafiklerde AUD\/USD, 0,7085\u2019te i\u015faretlenen 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131rken, RSI n\u00f6tr 50 seviyesine k\u0131yasla 44 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Perakende sat\u0131\u015flar, perakendeciler taraf\u0131ndan sat\u0131lan mallar\u0131n de\u011ferini takip eder ve t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6stergesi olarak yayg\u0131n bi\u00e7imde kullan\u0131l\u0131r; daha y\u00fcksek okumalar genellikle daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir CNY ile, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck okumalar ise daha zay\u0131f bir CNY ile ili\u015fkilendirilir. Enflasyon genellikle T\u00dcFE (CPI) ile, ayl\u0131k (MoM) ve y\u0131ll\u0131k (YoY) bazlarda ifade edilerek de\u011ferlendirilir; merkez bankalar\u0131 \u00e7o\u011funlukla \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu %2 civar\u0131nda hedefler.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019den gelen son veriler yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu da Avustralya dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in olumsuz r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar yarat\u0131yor. May\u0131s ay\u0131nda perakende sat\u0131\u015flar yaln\u0131zca %2,3 artt\u0131; %3,0\u2019l\u0131k beklentiyi kar\u015f\u0131layamad\u0131 ve t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131f kalmaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. \u00c7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131m\u0131z oldu\u011fundan, bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck talep Aussie\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc do\u011frudan bask\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu etkiyi, AUD i\u00e7in temel bir belirleyici olan emtia piyasalar\u0131nda da net bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Demir cevheri fiyatlar\u0131 son d\u00f6nemde ton ba\u015f\u0131na 105 dolar civar\u0131na geriledi; ge\u00e7en ay 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeydi. Bu hareket, \u00c7in\u2019in zorlanan gayrimenkul sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ve daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00e7elik \u00fcretimine ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu e\u011filim, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n kilit ihracat kalemlerine talebin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederek para birimindeki olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015flem perspektifinden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, AUD\/USD paritesi 0,6620\u2019de bulunan kritik 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda zorlan\u0131yor. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 50 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda seyrederek, \u015fimdilik sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n kontrol\u00fc elinde tuttu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Momentumdaki anlaml\u0131 bir de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret edebilmesi i\u00e7in bu hareketli ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerine kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m gerekti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz.<\/p>\n
Bu arka plan alt\u0131nda, AUD\/USD\u2019de ya s\u00fcregelen bir gerilemeden ya da bant hareketinden faydalanan stratejileri de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 0,6500 civar\u0131nda olan sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131, Temmuz\u2019a do\u011fru ilave zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa pozisyon almak i\u00e7in do\u011frudan bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, potansiyel a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerden faydalan\u0131rken riskin \u00f6nceden tan\u0131ml\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Aussie\u2019nin sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften ziyade yukar\u0131da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in, vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir di\u011fer se\u00e7enek sunuyor. Temmuz vadede 0,6650 call sat\u0131p 0,6700 call almak \u015feklindeki bir strateji, AUD\/USD\u2019nin bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 halinde prim geliri sa\u011flar. S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yukar\u0131 potansiyel g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz bir piyasada gelir \u00fcretmek i\u00e7in etkili bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u00c7in\u2019in May\u0131s verileri karma: perakende zay\u0131f, \u00fcretim g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; yat\u0131r\u0131m geriledi. AUD\/USD 0,7060\u2019a indi. \u00c7in talebi ve demir cevheri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc Aussie\u2019yi bask\u0131l\u0131yor; 100G SMA alt\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47788,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48877","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48877","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48877"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48877\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47788"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48877"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48877"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48877"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}