\u00c7in\u2019in perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 May\u0131s ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %0,6 gerileyerek piyasa beklentisi olan %0\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu veri, piyasalar\u0131n ay i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha zay\u0131f bir t\u00fcketici harcamas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Mevcut rakamlara g\u00f6re, beklenen yatay seyir ile a\u00e7\u0131klanan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f aras\u0131ndaki fark, hanehalk\u0131 talebindeki ivmenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Aktar\u0131lan verilerde daha fazla resmi k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019in May\u0131s ay\u0131 perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki s\u00fcrpriz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, t\u00fcketici talebinin ivme kazanmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fruluyor. Bu, i\u00e7 momentumun zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair net bir sinyal ve k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme alg\u0131s\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 muhtemel. Bu veri noktas\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fcnferit olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; zira son Caixin \u0130malat PMI da 49,5 ile daralma b\u00f6lgesine gerilemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde FXI gibi \u00c7in odakl\u0131 ETF\u2019ler ile Hang Seng ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz. B\u00f6ylece, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u00c7in hisselerinde bekledi\u011fimiz ilave d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmay\u0131 hedefliyoruz. T\u00fcketici g\u00fcvenindeki eksiklik, tek bir politika ayarlamas\u0131yla k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede giderilmesi zor, yap\u0131sal bir sorun.<\/p>\n
Yans\u0131malar, \u00c7in\u2019e \u00f6nemli sat\u0131\u015f maruziyeti bulunan \u00e7ok uluslu \u015firketleri, \u00f6zellikle l\u00fcks t\u00fcketim ve otomotiv sekt\u00f6rlerini vuracak. Bu nedenle, ba\u015fl\u0131ca Avrupal\u0131 otomotiv \u015firketleri ve l\u00fcks markalarda sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 yoluyla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar olu\u015fturuyoruz. Tarihsel olarak zay\u0131f \u00c7in t\u00fcketici verileri, bu sekt\u00f6rlerde h\u0131zl\u0131 hedef fiyat\/\u00f6neri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revizyonlar\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Bu veri ayn\u0131 zamanda end\u00fcstriyel emtialara y\u00f6nelik daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck talebe i\u015faret ediyor. Bak\u0131r vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yoruz; zira fiyatlar halihaz\u0131rda kritik teknik destek seviyelerinin alt\u0131na sarkm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u00c7in\u2019in k\u00fcresel bak\u0131r t\u00fcketiminin yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturmas\u0131, \u00fclkenin ekonomik sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 metalin fiyat\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan birincil belirleyici haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Kur cephesinde bunu, Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 satmak i\u00e7in net bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. AUD, \u00c7in ekonomik sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in klasik bir vekil (proxy) ve AUD\/USD paritesi b\u00f6lgeden gelen son zay\u0131f verilerin etkisiyle 0,65\u2019in alt\u0131na gerilemi\u015f durumda. Avustralya\u2019da faiz indirimi beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendik\u00e7e bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trendin s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Piyasa \u015fimdi Pekin\u2019den gelecek olas\u0131 bir politika yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 izleyecek; ancak temkinliyiz. 2023 ve 2024\u2019te te\u015fvik ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n beklentilerden daha zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131yla ya\u015fanan piyasa hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Bu nedenle, somut ve anlaml\u0131 devlet deste\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131klanana kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir toparlanma senaryosuna g\u00f6re pozisyon alm\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok veri: \u00c7in\u2019de May\u0131s perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 %0,6 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; beklenti %0\u2019d\u0131. \u0130\u00e7 talep zay\u0131fl\u0131yor, risk i\u015ftah\u0131 bask\u0131lan\u0131yor. \u00c7in\/HS put, bak\u0131r short, l\u00fcks-oto hedge, AUD\/USD sat\u0131\u015f \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47780,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48876","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48876","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48876"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48876\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47780"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48876"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48876"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48876"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}