\u00c7in\u2019in konut fiyat endeksi May\u0131s ay\u0131nda yatay seyretti; y\u0131ll\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim oran\u0131 -%3,5 seviyesinde de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Bu veri, konut de\u011ferlerindeki deflasyonun s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ederken, hanehalk\u0131 bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 ve geli\u015ftiricilerin fiyatlama stratejileri \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor.<\/p>\n
De\u011fi\u015fmeyen tempo, daha \u00f6nce devreye al\u0131nan politika deste\u011finin \u00fclke genelinde fiyatlarda bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe hen\u00fcz yans\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Endeksin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda h\u00e2l\u00e2 %3,5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret etmesiyle, piyasa y\u0131l ortas\u0131na zay\u0131f giriyor; olas\u0131 bir toparlanman\u0131n ise kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131ndaki devaml\u0131 iyile\u015fmeye ve konut talebindeki canlanmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131 konut fiyat endeksi verisini -%3,5 d\u00fczeyinde, \u00c7in\u2019in emlak piyasas\u0131ndaki durgunlu\u011fun kal\u0131c\u0131 h\u00e2le geldi\u011fine dair bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Son d\u00f6nemdeki politika deste\u011fine ra\u011fmen iyile\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fclmemesi, konut al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 nezdinde k\u00f6kle\u015fmi\u015f bir g\u00fcven eksikli\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu uzayan zay\u0131fl\u0131k, genel ekonomi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Hang Seng Anakara Gayrimenkul Endeksi\u2019ne ba\u011fl\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon almay\u0131 hedefliyoruz. Resmi veriler, May\u0131s ay\u0131nda yeni in\u015faat ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %25 geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da geli\u015ftiricilerin yak\u0131n vadede bir toparlanma g\u00f6rmedi\u011fini teyit ediyor. Bu yap\u0131sal gerileme, emlak ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 hisselerde olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcregelen zay\u0131fl\u0131k, \u00c7in Halk Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (PBOC) ilave gev\u015femeye zorlayabilir ve bu durum yuan \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Bu nedenle, USD\/CNH al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz ve 7,40\u2019a do\u011fru bir hareket bekliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, \u00c7in\u2019de emlak piyasas\u0131nda uzayan durgunluk d\u00f6nemleri, ihracat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc desteklemek amac\u0131yla daha zay\u0131f bir para birimiyle s\u0131kl\u0131kla birlikte seyretti.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00f6zellikle demir cevheri ve bak\u0131r ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere sanayi metalar\u0131 i\u00e7in de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc. \u00c7in\u2019de liman taraf\u0131ndaki demir cevheri stoklar\u0131n\u0131n Haziran ba\u015f\u0131nda 147 milyon metrik tonun \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak 2024\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye ula\u015fmas\u0131, in\u015faattan kaynaklanan talebin belirgin \u015fekilde zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle demir cevheri vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (bearish) pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Genel olarak, yatay veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 net bir trendden ziyade piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltiyor. FXI gibi \u00c7in odakl\u0131 ETF\u2019lerde straddle stratejileri alarak, fiyat\u0131n her iki y\u00f6nde de anlaml\u0131 bir hareketinden faydalanmay\u0131 hedefliyoruz. Mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ima edilen volatilite, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir politika \u015fokuna veya beklenenden sert bir yava\u015flamaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunma a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu stratejiyi cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u00c7in\u2019de konut fiyatlar\u0131 May\u0131s\u2019ta yatay; y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f -%3,5\u2019te kald\u0131. Deflasyon ve g\u00fcven kayb\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Strateji: gayrimenkulde short, USD\/CNH call, demir cevheri bearish, FXI straddle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49799,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48874","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48874","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48874"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48874\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49799"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48874"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48874"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48874"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}