USD\/JPY, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ABD ablukas\u0131n\u0131 sona erdiren ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6ren anla\u015fma sonras\u0131 yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle yakla\u015f\u0131k 160,15 seviyesine geriledi. Anla\u015fma, n\u00fckleer m\u00fczakereler i\u00e7in 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir takvim belirleyerek talebin yeniden Japon para birimine y\u00f6nelmesine neden olurken parite \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n hi\u00e7bir zaman n\u00fckleer silaha sahip olmamay\u0131 kabul etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Belge, ABD taraf\u0131nda Trump ve Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance taraf\u0131ndan, \u0130ran taraf\u0131nda ise Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Muhammed Bak\u0131r Galibaf taraf\u0131ndan imzaland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Dikkatler, piyasalar\u0131n \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi enerji \u015fokuna ba\u011fl\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131na yan\u0131t olarak politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n 31 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine do\u011fru bir art\u0131\u015fa gidebilece\u011fini fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) faiz karar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. Toplant\u0131ya, Guvern\u00f6r Kazuo Ueda\u2019n\u0131n enfekte karaci\u011fer kisti nedeniyle hastanede bulunmas\u0131 sebebiyle Guvern\u00f6r Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Ryozo Himino ba\u015fkanl\u0131k edecek. Toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131 bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ise Guvern\u00f6r Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Shinichi Uchida yapacak. Bu yokluk, bir BoJ guvern\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn 1998\u2019den bu yana ilk kez bir politika toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131rmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k 160,15\u2019e do\u011fru gerilemesi, takip etti\u011fimiz hareketti ve bunun temel nedenlerle ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. BoJ\u2019un olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesinin \u00e7ift etkisi, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yen i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor. Bunu ge\u00e7ici bir geri \u00e7ekilme de\u011fil, belirgin bir trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
BoJ\u2019un faizleri 30 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyesine y\u00fckseltmesi beklentisiyle, yen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fc ortadan kalk\u0131yor. Bu ad\u0131m, y\u0131llard\u0131r yen carry trade\u2019ini besleyen ABD-Japonya faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 agresif bi\u00e7imde daralt\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak BoJ ultra-gev\u015fek duru\u015ftan uzakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yenin belirgin \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ise petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek yene ek bir destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Japonya enerjisinin %90\u2019dan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal ediyor; bu nedenle ham petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na son d\u00f6nemdeki 78 dolar civar\u0131ndaki zirvelerden gerilemesi, do\u011frudan d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesini iyile\u015ftiriyor ve enflasyonu hafifletiyor. Bu da Japon \u015firketleri ve t\u00fcketiciler \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltarak para biriminin temel de\u011ferini destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler \u00fczerinden USD\/JPY\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn devam\u0131na pozisyonlan\u0131yoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda vadesi dolacak put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc h\u0131zl\u0131 bir hareket beklentimizi de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in \u00f6neriyoruz. Z\u0131mni volatilite h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda y\u00fckseldi\u011finden, 155,00 seviyesine do\u011fru bir hareketi hedeflemek i\u00e7in bear put spread kurgusu sermaye verimlili\u011fi y\u00fcksek bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck olarak, 2024\u2019te kamu m\u00fcdahalesini tetikleyen 160 seviyesi art\u0131k merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131yla da g\u00fc\u00e7lenen bir tavan haline geldi. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftaya y\u00f6nelik stratejimiz, bu b\u00f6lgeye do\u011fru olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirmek olacak. Piyasan\u0131n \u00f6nceki destek seviyelerini test etmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; ilk odak noktas\u0131 da ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n kritik m\u00fccadele alan\u0131 olan 152,00 b\u00f6lgesi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz anla\u015fma piyasay\u0131 sallad\u0131: ABD-\u0130ran mutabakat\u0131yla H\u00fcrm\u00fcz a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131yor, yen g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; USD\/JPY 160,15\u2019e indi. BoJ\u2019da olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi trendi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7evirirken 155-152 hedefleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49801,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48871","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48871","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48871"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48871\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49801"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48871"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48871"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48871"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}