WTI, \u00f6nceki seansta %3,7\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan toparlanarak Asya saatlerinde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80,10 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Piyasalar, olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran ge\u00e7ici mutabakat\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde bekle-g\u00f6r moduna ge\u00e7ti. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 sonland\u0131rmak ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mak \u00fczere bir mutabakat zapt\u0131n\u0131n imzaland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylerken, Washington ya da Tahran\u2019dan resmi bir metnin yay\u0131mlanmamas\u0131 temkinli havay\u0131 korudu. Deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 gruplar\u0131 su yolundan ge\u00e7i\u015fleri ertelerken, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Mehr haber ajans\u0131, bo\u011faz\u0131n \u0130ran d\u00fczenlemeleri alt\u0131nda 30 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir taslak plan bildirildi\u011fini aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Artmas\u0131 beklenen ak\u0131\u015flar \u00f6ncesinde \u0130ran Ulusal Petrol \u015eirketi (NIOC), Temmuz ay\u0131 i\u00e7in Asya\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik hafif ham petrol resmi sat\u0131\u015f fiyat\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc; prim, daha \u00f6nce 13 dolar seviyesindeyken Umman\/Dubai ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 7,15 dolar \u00fczerine indirildi. \u00dc\u00e7 ayd\u0131r s\u00fcren H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ablukas\u0131, k\u00fcresel petrol ve s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz arz\u0131n\u0131n be\u015fte birinin ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 rotay\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ayr\u0131 olarak, ABD Enerji Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 verileri Stratejik Petrol Rezervi\u2019nin ge\u00e7en hafta 8,9 milyon varil azalarak 340,3 milyon varile geriledi\u011fini ve 1983\u2019ten bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ortaya koydu. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, i\u00e7 piyasada akaryak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak amac\u0131yla 172 milyon varilin \u00f6d\u00fcn\u00e7 verilmesini i\u00e7eren anla\u015fman\u0131n bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
WTI\u2019\u0131n 80 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi ortamda, piyasan\u0131n bekle-g\u00f6r yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 nedeniyle belirgin bir oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131y\u0131z. CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX) yakla\u015f\u0131k 35\u2019e y\u00fckselerek ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f uzla\u015f\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7evreleyen derin belirsizli\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Potansiyel bir arz seli ile mevcut arz s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu gerilim, zorlu bir fiyatlama ortam\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilecek temel unsur, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve \u0130ran petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc. \u0130ran k\u0131sa vadede ihracat\u0131n\u0131 en az g\u00fcnl\u00fck 500 bin varil art\u0131rmaya haz\u0131r; Asya\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik agresif fiyat indirimleri de pazar pay\u0131n\u0131 geri alma konusunda kararl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Yakla\u015fan bu arz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylar i\u00e7in g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz en \u00f6nemli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel bir paralel i\u00e7in 2015 n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131na bakmak yeterli; anla\u015fman\u0131n duyurulmas\u0131n\u0131 izleyen alt\u0131 ayda petrol fiyatlar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 gerilemi\u015fti. Mevcut mutabakat zapt\u0131 nihai hale gelirse, piyasa daha fazla ham petrol arz\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131k\u00e7a benzer bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00fczeltmeyi tetikleyebilir. Bu emsal, anla\u015fma metni kamuoyuna a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlara haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, k\u0131sa vadede sert fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilecek mevcut arz s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekiyor. ABD Stratejik Petrol Rezervi A\u011fustos 1983\u2019ten bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyde ve bu durum, \u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131nda ya\u015fanabilecek \u015foklar\u0131 veya gecikmeleri absorbe edecek tamponu olduk\u00e7a azalt\u0131yor. Anla\u015fman\u0131n aksad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair herhangi bir i\u015faret, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck stoklar\u0131n da etkisiyle fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara ili\u015fkin stratejimiz, fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne pozisyon al\u0131rken beklenmedik y\u00fckseli\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 hedge etmeyi i\u00e7eriyor. 75 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir kaymadan yararlanmak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 ya da y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131ktan ve muhtemel bir fiyat tavan\u0131ndan faydalanmak \u00fczere ay\u0131 call spreadleri kurmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu t\u00fcrevler, jeopolitik tablonun beklenmedik \u015fekilde tersine d\u00f6nmesi halinde riskimizi net bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlamam\u0131za imk\u00e2n tan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde kritik e\u015fik: WTI 80,10 dolara toparland\u0131. ABD-\u0130ran ge\u00e7ici mutabakat\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 beklenirken OVX 35\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130ran fiyat k\u0131rd\u0131; SPR 1983\u2019ten d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, volatilite s\u00fcrecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47776,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48870","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48870","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48870"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48870\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47776"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48870"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48870"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48870"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}