Japonya Ekonomi Bakan\u0131 Minoru Kiuchi, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131s\u0131na kat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; ancak s\u00f6z konusu toplant\u0131da BoJ\u2019un faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gidece\u011fine dair piyasa beklentileri hakk\u0131nda yorum yapmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131. Kiuchi ayr\u0131ca, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n %2 enflasyon hedefine s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir ve istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde ula\u015fmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken h\u00fck\u00fcmetle ileti\u015fim kurmas\u0131n\u0131 ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetle i\u015f birli\u011fi i\u00e7inde olmas\u0131n\u0131 umdu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
Piyasalarda USD\/JPY g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,05 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle, haberin yaz\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada 160,25 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar toplant\u0131y\u0131 ve politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc tart\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fck\u00fcmetin olas\u0131 bir Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na ili\u015fkin yorum yapmamas\u0131, piyasa belirsizli\u011finin b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. USD\/JPY\u2019nin 160\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyretmesi, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131 ad\u0131m atmaya zorlayan kritik bir seviye. Bu sessizlik, %2\u2019lik istikrarl\u0131 enflasyon hedefi bask\u0131s\u0131yla birle\u015fti\u011finde, politika de\u011fi\u015fiminin yak\u0131n olabilece\u011fine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
S\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e sa\u011flayan Japonya enflasyon verilerini yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon, Nisan 2026\u2019da %2,2 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; bu da BoJ hedefinin iki y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir \u00fczerinde kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 bask\u0131, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ultra d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7elendirmesini giderek zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yenin zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 en \u00f6nemli unsur ve ge\u00e7mi\u015fte h\u00fck\u00fcmetin att\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlar net bi\u00e7imde hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Kurun bu seviyelerde oldu\u011fu bir ortamda, Japon yetkililerin 2024 bahar\u0131nda yeni rekor olan 9,79 trilyon yen tutar\u0131nda d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesiyle yeni savundu\u011fu ak\u0131llara geliyor. Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, yaln\u0131zca dolar rezervi satarak m\u00fcdahale etmeye k\u0131yasla daha s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir ara\u00e7 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemciler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu durum, USD\/JPY\u2019de bir haftal\u0131k ima edilen volatilitenin, trader\u2019lar\u0131n sert bir harekete haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a pahal\u0131 hale geldi\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. BoJ\u2019un bug\u00fcnk\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan paritede keskin bir sal\u0131n\u0131mdan fayda sa\u011flayacak opsiyonlara bakarak pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma maliyeti belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
BoJ\u2019dan \u015fahin bir s\u00fcrpriz ihtimali g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, USD\/JPY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu enstr\u00fcmanlar, banka faiz art\u0131r\u0131rsa ya da temmuzda art\u0131\u015fa g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirme verirse paritede ya\u015fanacak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamam\u0131za imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r. BoJ\u2019un herhangi bir ad\u0131m\u0131 ertelemesi halinde ise bu strateji, tan\u0131ml\u0131 (s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131) risk sunar.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 temkinli ge\u00e7mi\u015fini de kabul etmek gerekiyor. E\u011fer yaln\u0131zca tahvil al\u0131m program\u0131nda ileride bir azalt\u0131ma i\u015faret ederlerse, piyasa hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya\u015fayabilir ve yen daha da zay\u0131flayabilir. Bu nedenle BoJ\u2019un piyasa beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda kalabilece\u011fi bir senaryoyu da dikkate alarak baz\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 hedge ediyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesi g\u00f6zler Tokyo\u2019da: Bakan Kiuchi faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerine yorumsuz kald\u0131. USD\/JPY 160 \u00fcst\u00fcnde, enflasyon kal\u0131c\u0131. Volatilite t\u0131rman\u0131rken yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u015fahin s\u00fcrprize kar\u015f\u0131 put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 tart\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47813,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48867","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48867","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48867"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48867\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47813"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48867"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48867"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48867"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}