EUR\/USD, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Asya i\u015flemlerinde 1,1590 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenerek i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik anla\u015fma, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rarak Euro\u2019yu ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda destekledi. Anla\u015fma; \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ABD ablukas\u0131n\u0131n sona erdirilmesi, su yolunun yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck n\u00fckleer m\u00fczakerelerin ba\u015flat\u0131lmas\u0131 olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131rken, piyasalar \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz karar\u0131na da odakland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte belirsizlik s\u00fcrd\u00fc; taraflar \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201c\u00fccret\u201d alma niyetine ili\u015fkin ifadeler ile Bo\u011faz\u2019\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc herhangi bir ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti olmaks\u0131z\u0131n tamamen yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar dahil, kilit maddelerde farkl\u0131 anlat\u0131mlar sundu. Fed\u2019in politika faizini 3,50%-3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131 bekleniyor; yeni ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh d\u00f6neminde politika patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin sinyaller i\u00e7in bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 izlenecek. \u015eahin tondaki mesajlar, dolar\u0131n (Greenback) ilave kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir ve parite \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik anla\u015fman\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede olumlu bir duyarl\u0131l\u0131k yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; ancak iki taraftan gelen \u00e7eli\u015fkili detaylar, bunun k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir tabloya i\u015faret etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck m\u00fczakere penceresi belirgin bir olay riski yarat\u0131yor ve EUR\/USD\u2019deki mevcut y\u00fckseli\u015fi sert bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe a\u00e7\u0131k hale getiriyor. Bu nedenle, kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir hareketten ziyade volatilitede bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131, paritenin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en yak\u0131n vadeli risk unsuru. Faizlerin 3,75\u2019te kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 beklesek de, yeni Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019tan gelebilecek \u015fahin yorumlar dolar\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. 2022-2023 d\u00f6nemindeki agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn dolarda belirgin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz; bu tarihsel deneyim, temkinli olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7apraz etkiler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc spot piyasada do\u011frudan i\u015flem yapmak yerine opsiyonlarla ifade ediyoruz. EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmaya imkan verirken, duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n aniden bozulmas\u0131 halinde azami zarar\u0131 da s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Son bir haftada bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilitenin yakla\u015f\u0131k %7\u2019den %9\u2019un \u00fczerine y\u00fckselmesi, daha geni\u015f piyasan\u0131n da kayda de\u011fer bir fiyat hareketine haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fck resme bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7mesi, anla\u015fman\u0131n bozulmas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomik sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Mevcut 1,1600 civar\u0131ndaki EUR\/USD seviyesi, 2021\u2019den bu yana test edilmedi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz teknik bir diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015f\u0131yor. Bu nedenlerle, mevcut uzun pozisyonu bulunan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi yerinde olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz anla\u015fmas\u0131yla 1,1590\u2019a t\u0131rman\u0131rken risk i\u015ftah\u0131 artt\u0131; ancak \u00e7eli\u015fkili detaylar k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k yarat\u0131yor. G\u00f6zler Fed\u2019in 3,50-3,75 karar\u0131 ve yeni ba\u015fkan Warsh\u2019\u0131n \u015fahin sinyallerinde, opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48866","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48866","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48866"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48866\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48866"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48866"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48866"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}