GBP\/USD, ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ham petrol\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi ve risk duyarl\u0131 para birimlerini desteklemesiyle haftan\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131nda 1,3450\u2019ye do\u011fru s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Ancak hareket daha sonra tamamen geri verildi; Dolar\u2019\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Federal Rezerv toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131yla spot yeniden 1,3400 civar\u0131na d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Ate\u015fkes 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir uzatma olarak \u00e7er\u00e7eveleniyor; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 ertelenirken, resmi imzan\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc at\u0131lmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7eve, ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcndeki pozisyonlanman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan genel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n daha fazla geni\u015flemesini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD verileri zay\u0131ft\u0131 ancak bu durum Dolar\u2019\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131flatmaya yetmedi: New York Empire State \u0130malat Endeksi Haziran\u2019da 19,6\u2019dan 5,7\u2019ye gerileyerek 14\u2019l\u00fck beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; May\u0131s Sanayi \u00dcretimi ise %0,3 tahmine kar\u015f\u0131 %0,1 artt\u0131. Fed\u2019in, May\u0131s tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 172 bin gelmesi ve i\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,3 civar\u0131nda seyretmesinin ard\u0131ndan, faizi %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor; vadeli i\u015flemler Aral\u0131k\u2019ta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %57\u2019ye, Ocak\u2019ta sabit kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %35\u2019e i\u015faret ediyor. Teknik olarak parite, 1,3400 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 200-periyot EMA ile 1,3450\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131ndaki 50-periyot EMA aras\u0131nda, yakla\u015f\u0131k 40 piplik s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; Stoch RSI 44 civar\u0131nda. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,42 ve 1,43 milyon civar\u0131nda beklenen Yap\u0131 Ruhsatlar\u0131 ve Konut Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; ard\u0131ndan 06:00 GMT\u2019de Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k T\u00dcFE (man\u015fet y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,8; \u00e7ekirdek %2,5\u2019ten %2,7\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor), 12:30 GMT\u2019de ABD Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar ve 18:00 GMT\u2019de Fed karar\u0131 (18:30 GMT bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131) izlenecek; \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc takip edecek. Belirtilen seviyeler; diren\u00e7te 1,3450 ard\u0131ndan 1,3500 ve 1,3550; destekte 1,3400 ard\u0131ndan 1,3350.<\/p>\n
AB-\u00c7in ticaret ili\u015fkilerinde yumu\u015fama sinyalleriyle sterlinin 1,2800\u2019e do\u011fru k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir ivme kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck, ancak bu iyimserlik h\u0131zla s\u00f6nd\u00fc. Hareketin tamamen geri verilmesi, risk odakl\u0131 bu t\u00fcr rallilerin ne kadar s\u0131\u011f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Piyasan\u0131n as\u0131l oda\u011f\u0131 ise bu haftaki Federal Rezerv toplant\u0131s\u0131na kilitlenmi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u2019\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc itki i\u00e7in \u201cye\u015fil \u0131\u015f\u0131k\u201d beklemedi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ve bunun nedenini anlamak zor de\u011fil. May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son ABD enflasyon verisi yap\u0131\u015fkan bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle %3,1 geldi ve ekonomide 195 binlik sa\u011flam bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaydedildi. Bu t\u00fcr rakamlar, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde k\u0131sa dolar pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta Fed\u2019in faizi mevcut %4,50-%4,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. As\u0131l belirleyici unsur, g\u00fcncellenen \u201cdot plot\u201d ve Ba\u015fkan\u2019\u0131n tonu olacak; bunlar y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131na ili\u015fkin planlara \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutacak. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f tecr\u00fcbe, faiz projeksiyonlar\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir yukar\u0131 revizyonun bile Dolar\u2019\u0131 sert bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Grafiklere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda GBP\/USD\u2019nin \u00e7ok dar bir bantta s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareketin yakla\u015fabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Parite, 1,2720 civar\u0131nda destek veren 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama ile 1,2780\u2019de diren\u00e7 olu\u015fturan 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu t\u00fcr bir kompresyon, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman sert bir k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olur; tetikleyici olarak Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan bu kurulum, Fed a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00e7evresinde olas\u0131 volatilite k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 opsiyonlarla i\u015flemeyi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Y\u00f6n belirsiz oldu\u011fundan, her iki y\u00f6nde sert hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in straddle veya strangle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. \u0130zlenecek kritik seviyeler, 1,2720\u2019deki deste\u011fin alt\u0131na sarkma ya da 1,2800\u2019deki direncin \u00fczerine atak.<\/p>\n
Denklemin Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k taraf\u0131n\u0131 da unutmamak gerekiyor; BoE toplant\u0131s\u0131 Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta enflasyon ABD\u2019ye k\u0131yasla daha s\u0131cak, %3,5 seviyesinde seyrederken, BoE\u2019den gelebilecek s\u00fcrpriz \u015fahin sinyaller pozisyonlamay\u0131 karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Bununla birlikte, bu hafta parite i\u00e7in birincil belirleyici unsur \u015fimdilik Fed olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin ralli yapt\u0131, sonra geri verdi: Ate\u015fkes ve d\u00fc\u015fen petrol risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 desteklese de Dolar, Fed \u00f6ncesi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. GBP\/USD dar bantta; k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 \u201cdot plot\u201d ve BoE belirleyecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47853,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48865","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48865","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48865"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48865\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47853"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48865"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48865"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48865"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}