USD\/JPY, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131na 160,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde, \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvelere yak\u0131n giriyor. Piyasalar, faizin 1%\u2019e \u00e7eyrek puan art\u0131r\u0131lma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u015fimdiden yakla\u015f\u0131k %80 oran\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yor. Art\u0131\u015f gelse bile politika fark\u0131 geni\u015f kalacak; ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) faizi 3,50%-3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ve ima edilen spread yakla\u015f\u0131k 275 baz puan seviyesinde bulunuyor. Bu durum, carry trade\u2019in getiri matemati\u011fini canl\u0131 tutuyor. Karar ayn\u0131 zamanda s\u00fcre\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131: Karaci\u011fer enfeksiyonu nedeniyle hastanede olan Ba\u015fkan Kazuo Ueda oylamaya kat\u0131lamayacak ve g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini yaz\u0131l\u0131 olarak sunacak. Fed ise 24 saat sonra toplanacak; Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC), Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131n may\u0131sta g\u00f6revden ayr\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yerine gelen Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ilk karar\u0131n\u0131 verecek.<\/p>\n
160,00 \u00e7evresindeki resmi tolerans daha \u00f6nce de test edildi; Japonya 2024\u2019te ve 2026\u2019da bu seviyeye yak\u0131n m\u00fcdahale etti, ancak parite her seferinde sonras\u0131nda yeniden bu seviyenin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n seviyeden ziyade hareketin h\u0131z\u0131na daha duyarl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Teknik ko\u015fullar da gerilimli: G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte Stoch RSI 87\u2019nin \u00fczerinde, saatlikte ise 80 civar\u0131nda; fiyat, 159,50 civar\u0131ndaki geri \u00e7ekilmelerin ard\u0131ndan 159,00 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki y\u00fckselen 50-periyot EMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor. \u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan seviyeler; 160,50 civar\u0131nda diren\u00e7, ard\u0131ndan 161,00; 162,00 ise m\u00fcdahale a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha y\u00fcksek risk b\u00f6lgesi olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor. Destekler 160,00, ard\u0131ndan 159,50 ve 159,00. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Japonya\u2019n\u0131n may\u0131s T\u00dcFE verisi izlenecek; \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,4-%1,9 band\u0131nda seyrediyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin bug\u00fcn yap\u0131lacak BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 160,00 \u00fczerinde sa\u011flam duru\u015funu korudu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Beklenen 1%\u2019e faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 zaten fiyatlara yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, karar\u0131n kendisinin piyasay\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde hareketlendirmesi olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Odak, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvilinin Japon devlet tahviline g\u00f6re 320 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde getiri sundu\u011fu faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n besledi\u011fi carry trade\u2019de kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yar\u0131n yeni Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh y\u00f6netimindeki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131, paritenin dolar taraf\u0131na ek bir risk katman\u0131 ekliyor. BoJ art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ra\u011fmen faiz fark\u0131 275 baz puan civar\u0131nda kalacak; bu seviye, yen k\u0131sa (yen sat\/bor\u00e7lan) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n fonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in fazlas\u0131yla yeterli. Bu ger\u00e7eklik, son CFTC verilerinde de g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; spek\u00fclatif yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yene kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 rekor seviyelere yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201ca\u011fr\u0131 e\u015fi\u011fini\u201d test etti\u011fini ve bu e\u015fi\u011fin art\u0131k eski 160,00 \u00e7izgisinden ziyade 162,00\u2019ye daha yak\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. 2024\u2019teki m\u00fcdahaleler, 2022\u2019de harcanan 9 trilyon yenin \u00fczerindeki tutara benzer \u015fekilde, yen i\u00e7in yaln\u0131zca ge\u00e7ici bir rahatlama sa\u011flad\u0131. Mevcut y\u00fckseli\u015f volatil bir s\u0131\u00e7rama yerine kademeli bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, yetkililer m\u00fcdahale konusunda isteksiz davran\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 48 saatte olay riskinin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, riskin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 netle\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in spot yerine t\u00fcrevleri tercih ediyoruz. K\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almak\u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin haftal\u0131k 161,00 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131\u2014merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 sonras\u0131 paritenin yukar\u0131 k\u0131rmas\u0131 halinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc maruziyet sa\u011flar. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesine kat\u0131lmaya olanak verirken azami zarar\u0131 \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
BoJ veya Fed\u2019den b\u00fcy\u00fck bir s\u00fcrpriz gelece\u011fine inananlar i\u00e7in, uzun volatilite stratejilerinin anlaml\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Basit bir straddle; 160,50 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda hem al\u0131m (call) hem sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak, paritenin her iki y\u00f6nde sert hareket etmesi halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir. Bu, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n mevcut kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015fi bozacak beklenmedik bir ad\u0131m atmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u201csaf\u201d bir pozisyondur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 160 \u00fcst\u00fcnde: BoJ\u2019da %80 \u201c1% faiz\u201d fiyatland\u0131, ancak Fed\u2019le 275 bp fark carry trade\u2019i besliyor. Ueda yok, Warsh\u2019l\u0131 Fed takipte. 162 m\u00fcdahale riski, T\u00dcFE kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47801,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48864","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48864","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48864"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48864\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47801"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48864"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48864"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48864"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}