{"id":48863,"date":"2026-06-16T03:04:32","date_gmt":"2026-06-16T03:04:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abd-iran-uzlasmasinin-risk-istahini-artirmasiyla-avustralya-dolari-yukseldi-gozler-fed-ve-rbada\/"},"modified":"2026-06-16T03:04:32","modified_gmt":"2026-06-16T03:04:32","slug":"abd-iran-uzlasmasinin-risk-istahini-artirmasiyla-avustralya-dolari-yukseldi-gozler-fed-ve-rbada","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-iran-uzlasmasinin-risk-istahini-artirmasiyla-avustralya-dolari-yukseldi-gozler-fed-ve-rbada\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD-\u0130ran uzla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131yla Avustralya dolar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi; g\u00f6zler Fed ve RBA\u2019da"},"content":{"rendered":"

Avustralya dolar\u0131, ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 sona erdirmeyi ve Tahran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ba\u015flatmay\u0131 hedefleyen bir Mutabakat Zapt\u0131 \u00fczerinde anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,37\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi. Piyasalar H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, ABD Donanmas\u0131 ablukas\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyumu \u00fclke i\u00e7inde seyreltecek ad\u0131mlar atmas\u0131 ve 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir m\u00fczakere penceresi ihtimalini fiyatlarken, AUD\/USD 0,7041\u2019den toparlanarak 0,7072 seviyesine geldi. Petrol\u00fcn, k\u00fcresel petrol \u00fcretiminin be\u015fte birinden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yan Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde daha serbest seyr\u00fcsefer beklentisiyle gerilemesi \u00fczerine ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) %0,15 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 99,66\u2019ya indi.<\/p>\n

G\u00f6zler merkez bankalar\u0131na \u00e7evriliyor; Federal Rezerv\u2019in faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 ve Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh liderli\u011finde g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f Ekonomik Projeksiyonlar \u00d6zeti\u2019ni (SEP) yay\u0131mlamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Avustralya\u2019da ise Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) bu y\u0131lki \u00fc\u00e7 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan politika faizini %4,85\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; ancak bir ba\u015fka tahmin 16 Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda %4,35\u2019te \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d senaryosuna i\u015faret etti. Grafiklerde AUD\/USD, 0,7143 civar\u0131nda k\u00fcmelenen basit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 40\u2019lar\u0131n ortas\u0131nda ve y\u00fckseli\u015fte; destek \u00e7izgileri 0,68\u20130,69 b\u00f6lgesine kadar uzan\u0131yor. ABD\u2019de \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan veriler aras\u0131nda Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar ve haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

ABD-\u0130ran Anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ve D\u00fc\u015fen Petrol Fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n Etkisi<\/h3>\n

ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi beklenen \u00f6nemli bir risk azaltma (de-risking) geli\u015fmesi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Brent vadeli petrol\u00fcn bu y\u0131l ilk kez varil ba\u015f\u0131na 75 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inmesiyle sonu\u00e7lanan sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, son d\u00f6nemdeki enflasyon endi\u015felerinin kilit kaynaklar\u0131ndan birini ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu da, VIX endeksinin son 24 saatte %15\u2019ten fazla gerilemi\u015f olmas\u0131yla birlikte, d\u00fc\u015fen oynakl\u0131ktan fayda sa\u011flayan stratejilerin de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Geli\u015fen risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemesiyle, 0,7143 diren\u00e7 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir hareket i\u00e7in pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. RBA karar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ncesinde AUD\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz; bankan\u0131n faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn tetikledi\u011fi daha az \u015fahin bir RBA tonu, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve para birimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu okunabilir.<\/p>\n

Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve Emtia Deste\u011fi<\/h3>\n

Ana odak art\u0131k jeopolitikten, RBA ile Federal Rezerv aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fmaya kay\u0131yor. \u0130ki y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvillerindeki mevcut getiri fark\u0131 Avustralya lehine yakla\u015f\u0131k 25 baz puan seviyesinde; bu seviye tarihsel olarak AUD\u2019yi desteklemi\u015ftir. Yeni Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ilk bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bu fark\u0131n geni\u015fleyip geni\u015flemeyece\u011fini izleyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte, Fed\u2019deki yeni liderlik \u00f6nemli bir belirsizlik alan\u0131 ve bu hafta ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerde kayda de\u011fer bir olay riski yarat\u0131yor. Bunu y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, uzun pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131zdan elde etti\u011fimiz primin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 ucuz, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 uzak (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almakta kullan\u0131yoruz. Bu, Fed\u2019den gelebilecek beklenmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u015fahin bir mesaj\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131nda sert bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 riskine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc dikkat \u00e7ekici olsa da, Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131n temel g\u00fcc\u00fc di\u011fer kritik emtia ihracatlar\u0131yla destekleniyor. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret hadleri ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte %2,1\u2019lik \u00e7eyreklik art\u0131\u015f kaydetti; art\u0131\u015fta demir cevheri ve k\u00f6m\u00fcre y\u00f6nelik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep etkili oldu. Bu temel dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k, enerji fiyatlar\u0131 daha yumu\u015fak seyrederken dahi para birimi i\u00e7in bir tampon olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u00fcrpriz ralli: ABD-\u0130ran mutabakat\u0131 ve petrol\u00fcn 75 dolar alt\u0131na ini\u015fi risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; AUD\/USD 0,7072\u2019ye toparlad\u0131. G\u00f6zler Fed-SEP, RBA karar\u0131 ve 0,7143 direncinde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47694,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48863","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48863","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48863"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48863\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47694"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48863"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48863"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48863"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}