G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin ihracat fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f May\u0131s ay\u0131nda h\u0131zland\u0131; y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki %40,8\u2019den %46,9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. Bu hareket, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na sat\u0131lan mallarda \u00f6nceki aylara k\u0131yasla daha h\u0131zl\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
%40,8\u2019den %46,9\u2019a s\u0131\u00e7rama, May\u0131s ay\u0131nda ihracat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda daha y\u00fcksek bir tempoda seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Son veri, ihracat fiyat enflasyonunda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ortaya koyarak d\u0131\u015f ticaret hadleri \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcney Kore ihracat fiyatlar\u0131ndaki h\u0131zlanmay\u0131, kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u00fcresel enflasyonun net bir sinyali olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu yaln\u0131zca yerel bir hik\u00e2ye de\u011fil; k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte kilit bir tedarik\u00e7i olan G\u00fcney Kore\u2019den gelen bu veri, maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 tedarik zincirleri boyunca yans\u0131t\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu e\u011filimin, Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BOK) dahil olmak \u00fczere merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 \u015fahin duru\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 korumaya zorlayaca\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, KOSPI endeksi i\u00e7in karma ancak uygulanabilir bir tablo sunuyor. Samsung ve Hyundai gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelir rakamlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu da ilgili hisseleri destekleyerek bu isimlerde uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Ancak y\u00fckselen faiz oran\u0131 riski, geni\u015f piyasan\u0131n performans\u0131na muhtemelen bir tavan olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Kore Wonu\u2019nun (KRW) bu verilerle birlikte de\u011ferlenme bask\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6rmesi olas\u0131. Ay\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki \u00e7evrimi\u00e7i d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 verileri, Won\u2019a y\u00f6nelik talebin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve USD\/KRW paritesinin zirvelerinden geri \u00e7ekildi\u011fini zaten g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. USD\/KRW\u2019de ilave bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareket i\u00e7in USD\/KRW put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeyi veya vadeli kontratlar \u00fczerinden k\u0131sa pozisyon almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Faiz oran\u0131 i\u015flemleri yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu rapor, BOK\u2019un bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 daha \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bunu, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n adeta \u201ckilitlenmesi\u201d olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz; bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, BOK yetkililerinden gelen son \u015fahin a\u00e7\u0131klamalarla da destekleniyor. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda getirilerin y\u00fckselmesini bekledi\u011fimiz i\u00e7in Kore hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon ar\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, 2021-2022 enflasyon d\u00f6neminde BOK harekete ge\u00e7en ilk b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131ndan biriydi ve benzer bir proaktif tepkiyi \u015fimdi de bekliyoruz. Bu veri ayr\u0131ca, ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana k\u00fcresel deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 maliyetlerinin %12 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren son raporlarla da destekleniyor. Bu d\u0131\u015f etken, ihracat fiyat enflasyonunu daha da besleyerek daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Won ve daha y\u00fcksek yurti\u00e7i faiz oranlar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc peki\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alarm zilleri: G\u00fcney Kore ihracat fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 May\u0131s\u2019ta h\u0131zlanarak %40,8\u2019den %46,9\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. K\u00fcresel enflasyon sinyali g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; BOK \u015fahin kalabilir. KRW de\u011ferlenebilir, USD\/KRW d\u00fc\u015febilir; tahvil getirileri y\u00fckseli\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131nda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47676,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48861","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48861","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48861"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48861\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47676"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48861"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48861"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48861"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}