ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckselen hisse senetleriyle ili\u015fkilendiren yorumlar\u0131na ve \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlarda gev\u015feme olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesine ra\u011fmen, 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck dip seviyelerden tepki vererek 99,70 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Maj\u00f6r paritelerde EUR\/USD 1,1580\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckseldikten sonra, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n kontrol alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 halinde Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn nas\u0131l \u015fekillenece\u011fini tartan piyasalarla 1,1620 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki diren\u00e7ten geri \u00e7ekildi. GBP\/USD, \u0130ngiltere verileri ve \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) ileti\u015fimi \u00f6ncesinde 1,3410 civar\u0131nda tutunurken, USD\/JPY Japon Yeni\u2019nin (JPY) Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde destek bulamamas\u0131yla 160,40\u2019a do\u011fru t\u0131rmand\u0131. AUD\/USD, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA) karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 0,7070\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Emtialarda sert dalgalanmalar g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) petrol\u00fc, Trump\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k %4 d\u00fc\u015ferek 81,50 dolar civar\u0131na gerilerken, alt\u0131n %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek 4.320 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Makro takvim olduk\u00e7a yo\u011fun: Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00c7in sanayi \u00fcretimi ve perakende sat\u0131\u015flar, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n BoJ karar\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n RBA karar\u0131, Almanya T\u00dcFE ve ZEW endeksleri ile ABD ADP istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ngiltere T\u00dcFE, \u00dcFE ve RPI, Euro B\u00f6lgesi HICP, ABD Fed karar\u0131 ve Yeni Zelanda GSYH verisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin SNB raporlar\u0131 ve faiz karar\u0131, \u0130ngiltere istihdam verileri ve BoE karar\u0131, ABD i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ve Philadelphia Fed anketi ile Japonya T\u00dcFE ve BoJ tutanaklar\u0131 takip edilecek; Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ise Almanya \u00dcFE, \u0130ngiltere ve Kanada perakende sat\u0131\u015flar g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta \u00e7ok say\u0131da merkez bankas\u0131 karar\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in ana teman\u0131n volatilite oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 bug\u00fcn, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) \u00c7ar\u015famba ve \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Bu geli\u015fmeler maj\u00f6r d\u00f6viz paritelerinin y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc belirleyecek ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara y\u00f6nelik risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 \u015fekillendirecek.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 99,70 civar\u0131nda temkinli bir al\u0131c\u0131l\u0131 seyri korudu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; ancak yakla\u015fan Fed karar\u0131 temel kataliz\u00f6r. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri \u015fu anda \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da dolar i\u00e7in bir taban olu\u015fturabilir. Bu nedenle, a\u00e7\u0131klama \u00f6ncesinde yeni ve anlaml\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte dolar k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 almada temkinli olunmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD\u2019de 1,1620 seviyesi etraf\u0131ndaki direnci izliyoruz; zira ECB\u2019nin ad\u0131m atma konusunda isteksiz g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ne ili\u015fkin son HICP verileri, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %2,7\u2019de kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu da ECB\u2019ye ilave politika hamlelerinde sab\u0131rl\u0131 kalma alan\u0131 veriyor. Parite bant i\u00e7inde kal\u0131rsa, opsiyon strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 uygulanabilir bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n
Japon Yeni\u2019ndeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n USD\/JPY\u2019yi 160,40\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131, BoJ karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ana odak noktas\u0131. Yen\u2019in en son bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fer kaybetmesi 2022-2023 d\u00f6neminde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f ve sonunda Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n s\u00f6zl\u00fc ve fiili m\u00fcdahalesini tetiklemi\u015fti. S\u00fcrpriz bir politika de\u011fi\u015fimi veya m\u00fcdahale riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in USD\/JPY\u2019de derin out-of-the-money put opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere\u2019de sterlin, kritik enflasyon ve istihdam verilerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra BoE toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde yatay seyrediyor. Son T\u00dcFE verisi %2,3 ile BoE hedefinin hafif \u00fczerinde gelmi\u015fti; Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc \u015fahin tonda a\u00e7\u0131klamalar sterlini mevcut banttan \u00e7\u0131karabilir. Z\u0131mni volatilitenin Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc karar \u00f6ncesinde artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Emtia piyasalar\u0131 jeopolitik man\u015fetlere ve para politikas\u0131 beklentilerindeki de\u011fi\u015fimlere duyarl\u0131 kalmaya devam edebilir. WTI petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn %4 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 81,50 dolara gerilemesi, risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00f6nebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu nedenle spread gibi tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli stratejilerin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.320 dolar ile y\u00fcksek de\u011ferlemesi, onu reel faizlere kar\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a hassas k\u0131l\u0131yor; bu da Fed\u2019in ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmesini faiz karar\u0131n\u0131n kendisinden daha \u00f6nemli hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, Avustralya dolar\u0131 bug\u00fcnk\u00fc RBA faiz karar\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerin \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlam\u0131\u015f durumda. Gecelik AUD\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni volatilite y\u00fckseldi; bu da piyasan\u0131n anlaml\u0131 bir harekete haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n mevcut pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 korumas\u0131n\u0131 veya yeni pozisyonlara girmeden \u00f6nce karar sonras\u0131 olu\u015fabilecek fiyat s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmesini (drift) beklemesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasada nefesler tutuldu: DXY 99,70\u2019e tepki verirken petrol %4 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 81,5$, alt\u0131n 4.320$. Bu hafta BoJ, RBA, Fed, BoE kararlar\u0131yla FX-emtiada volatilite artabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47672,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48860","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48860","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48860"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48860\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47672"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48860"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48860"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48860"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}