K\u00fcresel piyasalar, Washington ile Tahran\u2019\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmek ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mak i\u00e7in bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve ortaya koymas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc hisse senetlerinin y\u00fckselip petrol\u00fcn gerilemesiyle risk i\u015ftah\u0131na d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Buna ra\u011fmen NZD\/USD erken kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 koruyamad\u0131: Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 0,5850\u2019nin hemen \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra kapan\u0131\u015fa do\u011fru 0,5800 civar\u0131na geri \u00e7ekildi. ABD verileri Dolar aleyhine yeterince zay\u0131f kald\u0131; Empire State imalat endeksi 14 beklentisine ve \u00f6nceki 19,6 seviyesine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 5,7\u2019ye gerilerken, Sanayi \u00dcretimi ayl\u0131k bazda %0,3 uzla\u015f\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 %0,1 artt\u0131. Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n Business NZ PSI verisi de zay\u0131flad\u0131; 47,5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ferek hizmet faaliyetinde daha derin bir daralmaya i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Paritenin g\u00fcn i\u00e7indeki dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha \u00f6nce faiz beklentilerine ba\u011fl\u0131yd\u0131. RBNZ politika faizini (OCR) %2,25\u2019te tutarken, piyasalar ilk art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Temmuz kadar erken bir tarihte ve 2027\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,0 civar\u0131nda bir tepeye do\u011fru ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yordu. D\u00fc\u015fen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 bu mant\u0131\u011f\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131: Brent 83 dolar seviyelerine, WTI ise yakla\u015f\u0131k 80 dolara geriledi; bu seviyeler 126 dolarl\u0131k \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma zirvesinin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda ve RBNZ\u2019nin Haziran sonu i\u00e7in varsayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 100 dolar alt\u0131 patikan\u0131n da gerisinde. Olay riski hafta ortas\u0131nda yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor: \u00c7in\u2019in May\u0131s sanayi \u00fcretimi ve perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131, RBA\u2019n\u0131n %4,35\u2019te b\u0131rakmas\u0131 beklenen karar\u0131, 18:00 GMT\u2019de g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f noktasal grafik (dot plot) ile birlikte Fed\u2019in yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,75 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi ve Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n 1\u00c7 GSYH\u2019sinin \u00e7eyreklik bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,9 gelmesi bekleniyor. Teknik seviyeler olarak 0,5850 \u00fczerindeki diren\u00e7 (50 ve 200 periyotluk EMA\u2019lar yak\u0131n\u0131nda) ile 0,5800 ard\u0131ndan 0,5750 ve 0,5700 destekleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken; g\u00fcnl\u00fck Stoch RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 31 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnk\u00fc k\u00fcresel ralli Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in ideal bir zemin olmal\u0131yd\u0131; ancak NZD g\u00fcn sonunda en zay\u0131f para birimlerinden biri olarak ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu, sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n genel risk alg\u0131s\u0131ndan ziyade Kiwi\u2019ye \u00f6zg\u00fc oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bunu, paray\u0131 daha \u00f6nce destekleyen unsurlar\u0131n art\u0131k tersine d\u00f6nmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair net bir uyar\u0131 sinyali olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klanan bar\u0131\u015f \u00e7er\u00e7evesi petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken, Brent ham petrol \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6nemindeki varil ba\u015f\u0131na 125 dolar \u00fczerindeki zirvesinden bug\u00fcn 83 dolar yak\u0131nlar\u0131na indi. Bu durum, enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi gerekti\u011fi tezini do\u011frudan zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Swap piyasas\u0131 \u015fimdiden ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck art\u0131r\u0131m beklentilerini geri almaya ba\u015flad\u0131; bu da son haftalarda Kiwi\u2019nin temel g\u00fc\u00e7 kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Kiwi\u2019deki zay\u0131fl\u0131k, yurt i\u00e7i verilerin de k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmesiyle art\u0131yor; son hizmet endeksi 47,5\u2019e geriledi ve bu seviye daralmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Ayr\u0131ca bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00c7in sanayi \u00fcretimi verisini yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; zira olas\u0131 bir yava\u015flama Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat pazar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan etkiler. Tarihsel olarak, \u00c7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda NZD bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Temel hik\u00e2ye negatife d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in, 0,5850 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri yeni k\u0131sa pozisyonlar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete kat\u0131lmak ve riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in NZD\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. D\u00fcnk\u00fc kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n 0,5800 diplerine yak\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi, bir sonraki destek olan 0,5750 civar\u0131n\u0131n test edilebilece\u011fine dair momentum sinyali veriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6nelik en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk yar\u0131n; ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) karar\u0131 ve birka\u00e7 saat sonra gelecek Yeni Zelanda GSYH verisi. Bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte yo\u011fun bir olay riski, b\u00fcy\u00fck pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 tehlikeli hale getiriyor. \u015eimdilik temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini koruyarak belirlenmi\u015f diren\u00e7 seviyelerini kullan\u0131p a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin devam\u0131na pozisyon almak oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sava\u015f\u0131n biti\u015f \u00e7er\u00e7evesiyle risk i\u015ftah\u0131 artsa da Kiwi ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131: NZD\/USD 0,5850\u2019yi a\u015famad\u0131, 0,5800\u2019e indi. D\u00fc\u015fen petrol, RBNZ faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 bozdu; \u00c7in-Fed-GSYH kritik. PSI 47,5 zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47646,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48859","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48859","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48859"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48859\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47646"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48859"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48859"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48859"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}