DJIA pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yeni bir t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviye (intraday) rekoru k\u0131rd\u0131; ABD\u2013\u0130ran aras\u0131nda \u00f6n mutabakat niteli\u011findeki bar\u0131\u015f \u00e7er\u00e7evesinin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na, ABD deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n sona ermesine ve ate\u015fkesin 60 g\u00fcn uzat\u0131lmas\u0131na i\u015faret etmesiyle endeks yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 y\u00fckseldi. Ham Petrol gerileyerek enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131; ancak anla\u015fma h\u00e2l\u00e2 imzalanm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil ve Cenevre\u2019de cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc imzalanmas\u0131 planlan\u0131yor. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 ile yapt\u0131r\u0131m gev\u015femesinin hangi s\u0131rayla uygulanaca\u011f\u0131, \u00f6nceki ate\u015fkes g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin \u00e7\u00f6kmesinin ard\u0131ndan sonraki m\u00fczakerelere ertelendi; 8 Nisan\u2019da ilan edilen iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkes, \u0130slamabad\u2019daki takip g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131 ve Washington\u2019un abluka uygulamas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce ABD hisselerinde %2,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde bir rahatlama rallisi tetiklemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Makro veriler s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tepki ald\u0131: Empire State \u0130malat Endeksi 14 civar\u0131 beklentilere kar\u015f\u0131 5,7\u2019ye geriledi; May\u0131s Sanayi \u00dcretimi %0,1 artt\u0131; Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar ise \u00e7ar\u015famba a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Odak, 18:00 GMT\u2019deki Fed karar\u0131na kay\u0131yor; Kevin Warsh\u2019\u00fcn ba\u015fkanl\u0131k edece\u011fi ilk FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131, bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 ise 18:30 GMT\u2019de. CME FedWatch, faizin %3,50\u2013%3,75 band\u0131nda sabit kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %97 g\u00f6sterirken, opsiyon piyasalar\u0131 y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %80 fiyatl\u0131yor. Teknik seviyelerde 51.950 ve 52.000 civar\u0131 diren\u00e7; 50.800 civar\u0131 destek \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 50 periyotluk EMA yakla\u015f\u0131k 49.850\u2019de, 200 periyotluk EMA ise yakla\u015f\u0131k 47.900\u2019de; Stoch RSI 49 civar\u0131nda ve yukar\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, \u0130ran ile \u00f6n bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n itmesiyle t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n zirvelerinde. Bu anla\u015fma petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ve enflasyon endi\u015felerini so\u011futtu; piyasan\u0131n g\u00f6rmek istedi\u011fi de buydu. Ancak anla\u015fma cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcne kadar imzalanmayacak; bu da ralliyi belirsiz bir zeminde b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Daha \u00f6nce de bu senaryoyu g\u00f6rd\u00fck: B\u00fcy\u00fck duyurular yap\u0131l\u0131r, ancak nihai ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yarat\u0131r. 8 Nisan\u2019daki ate\u015fkesin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler \u00e7\u00f6kmeye ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce ralliyi tetiklemesini ya da 2025\u2019te beklentinin alt\u0131nda kalan ticaret anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlay\u0131n. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f, pazartesi rallisinin kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda temkinli olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n tepkisi oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ezdi; VIX %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015ferek 13,5\u2019e indi ve bu seviye ilk \u00e7eyrekten bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011fer. Bu durum opsiyonlar\u0131 g\u00f6rece ucuz hale getiriyor ve hafta i\u00e7inde olas\u0131 bir s\u00fcrprize kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat sunuyor. Bize g\u00f6re bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k, ya \u015fahin bir Fed\u2019e ya da cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc anla\u015fman\u0131n imzalanmamas\u0131 riskine yeterince fiyat bi\u00e7miyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcm g\u00f6zler \u015fimdi \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yeni Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ilk toplant\u0131s\u0131nda. Faiz de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi beklenmese de, piyasay\u0131 as\u0131l hareket ettirecek unsur tonu ve yeni ekonomik projeksiyonlar olacak. Temel risk, son enflasyon verilerine kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadele gerek\u00e7esiyle \u015fahin bir duru\u015f sergilemesi; bu da bu ralliyi besleyen \u201ckolay para\u201d varsay\u0131m\u0131na do\u011frudan meydan okur.<\/p>\n
Bunu, y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bi\u00e7imde b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyonlar almak i\u00e7in bir kurulum olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Dow kritik 52.000 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda seyrederken, \u015fahin bir Fed endeksi kolayl\u0131kla 50.800\u2019e do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k teyit edilmi\u015f g\u00fcvercin bir ton veya sorunsuz bir \u015fekilde imzalanan bir anla\u015fma, yeni zirvelere g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 ayn\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta iki ayr\u0131 kataliz\u00f6re bak\u0131yoruz; \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 bu ralli i\u00e7in ilk s\u0131nav. Fed riskini atlatsak bile, Cenevre\u2019deki cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc imza s\u00fcrecine ili\u015fkin man\u015fet riski devam ediyor. Bu da haftan\u0131n sonuna kadar bir miktar korumay\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 ihtiyatl\u0131 bir strateji haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dow, ABD\u2013\u0130ran \u00f6n bar\u0131\u015f \u00e7er\u00e7evesiyle %1 y\u00fckselip intraday rekor k\u0131rd\u0131; petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc enflasyon korkusunu azaltt\u0131. Ancak imza cuma, Fed karar\u0131 \u00e7ar\u015famba: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck VIX temkin \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47715,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48858","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48858","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48858"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48858\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47715"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48858"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48858"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48858"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}