Dolar Piyasas\u0131 B\u00fcy\u00fck Olay Riskleri \u00d6ncesinde Ge\u00e7ici Bir Molaya Giriyor<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f \u00e7er\u00e7evesi haberleriyle zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla birlikte, mevcut piyasay\u0131 ge\u00e7ici bir \u201cbekleme\u201d d\u00f6nemi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 99,50 civar\u0131ndaki kritik deste\u011fin \u00fczerinde tutunuyor; ancak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir pozisyon almaya belirgin \u015fekilde isteksiz oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. As\u0131l hareketlerin, bu haftan\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck olay riskleri geride kald\u0131ktan sonra gelmesi muhtemel.<\/p>\n
Oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u015fimdi 18 Haziran \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131nda. May\u0131s T\u00dcFE verisi \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %3,8\u2019de kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; son istihdam raporu da 210 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti. Bu tablo, Fed\u2019in faiz indirimi sinyali vermesi i\u00e7in pek az gerek\u00e7e b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Faizlerin sabit tutulmas\u0131n\u0131, ancak \u015fahin bir duru\u015fun korunmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu da dolar i\u00e7in bir \u201ctaban\u201d olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu haftaki iki b\u00fcy\u00fck olay g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ima edilen volatilitenin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131ndan faydalanan opsiyonlar sat\u0131n alarak bir \u201ck\u0131r\u0131lma\u201d senaryosuna pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. \u00d6rne\u011fin EUR\/USD\u2019de uzun straddle stratejisi, Fed a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda veya Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc nihai bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n imzalanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gelecek hareketi yakalamada etkili olabilir.<\/p>\n
Fed Toplant\u0131s\u0131 ve Jeopolitik Riskler Opsiyon Stratejileri \u0130\u00e7in F\u0131rsat Yarat\u0131yor<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
Bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 sorunsuz imzalan\u0131rsa, WTI ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n daha da gerilemesini ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u0131ras\u0131nda 98 dolar civar\u0131nda zirve g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 80 dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerini test etmesini bekliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak (\u00f6r. 2010\u2019lar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki gerilim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc d\u00f6nemleri) Ortado\u011fu tansiyonunun azalmas\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerji maliyetleri ve daha zay\u0131f bir dolar ile ili\u015fkilendirildi. Bu sonu\u00e7, DXY\u2019de sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 destekler; hedef 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama olan 98,88\u2019e do\u011fru bir hareket.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, anla\u015fman\u0131n sekteye u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair herhangi bir i\u015faret veya a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u015fahin bir Fed mesaj\u0131, dolar\u0131n direncin \u00fczerinden s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. DXY\u2019de 100,50 seviyesi izlenecek kilit \u00e7izgi. Jeopolitik riskin geri d\u00f6nmesi halinde \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in DXY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeye haz\u0131r\u0131z.<\/p>\n
\u015eimdilik risk y\u00f6netimi belirleyici. Yeni y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemlerde riski tan\u0131mlamak i\u00e7in opsiyon kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u00d6rne\u011fin h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda dolar k\u0131sa pozisyonu ta\u015f\u0131yan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc merkez bankas\u0131ndan gelebilecek \u015fahin bir s\u00fcrprize kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli, paras\u0131z (out-of-the-money) call opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131, ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7acak bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 \u00fczerinde uzla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcvenli liman pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131yla Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), 99,38 civar\u0131nda bir haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 99,57 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; ancak Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc imzalanmas\u0131 beklenen nihai anla\u015fma \u00f6ncesindeki temkin, kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 ayr\u0131ca \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Federal Rezerv (Fed) karar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi; faizlerin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fmeden b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu korumas\u0131 halinde dolar\u0131n destek bulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesinde fiyatlamalar bu y\u0131l en az iki faiz indirimine i\u015faret ederken, y\u00fckselen enerji maliyetleri enflasyon beklentilerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti ve y\u0131l sonuna kadar olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik baz\u0131 pozisyonlanmalara yol a\u00e7t\u0131; petrol\u00fcn daha da d\u00fc\u015fmesi bu kaymay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir, ancak enflasyon %2 hedefine daha fazla yakla\u015fmadan indirimler olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Teknik olarak DXY 50, 100 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n (SMA) \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; destekler 99,50, ard\u0131ndan 98,88 ve 98,70 civar\u0131nda izlenirken, diren\u00e7 100,50 yak\u0131n\u0131nda. RSI 50\u2019lerin ortas\u0131nda, MACD ise sinyal \u00e7izgisine yakla\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar, ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f \u00e7er\u00e7evesiyle solukland\u0131: DXY 99,50 deste\u011finde. G\u00f6zler \u00c7ar\u015famba Fed\u2019de, Cuma nihai anla\u015fmada. Volatilite d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck; straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. K\u0131r\u0131lma: 98,88 hedef, 100,50 diren\u00e7. Opsiyonla risk y\u00f6netimi \u015fart.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48856","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48856","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48856"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48856\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48856"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48856"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48856"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}