ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc G7 toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in Fransa\u2019n\u0131n Evian kentine vard\u0131ktan sonra yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, \u0130ran ile bir anla\u015fman\u0131n imzaland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tamamen yeniden a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Trump, bo\u011faz\u0131n \u201cCuma g\u00fcn\u00fc tamamen a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d ifade etti; petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve hisselerin y\u00fckseldi\u011fini kaydetti.<\/p>\n
Trump, d\u00fczenlemenin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah edinmesini engelleyece\u011fini ve \u201cg\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc denetim\u201d i\u00e7erece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u0130mzaya kendisinin dahil olabilece\u011fini de olmayabilece\u011fini ifade eden Trump, Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance\u2019in kat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Anla\u015fma metninin Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcnden sonra bir zamanda yay\u0131mlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, yay\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede beklendi\u011fini ve uyum \u015fartlar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lanana kadar \u0130ran\u2019a yapt\u0131r\u0131m gev\u015fetmesi olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca m\u00fcttefiklerin olas\u0131 deste\u011fine ve L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131 \u201cd\u00fczene sokmaya\u201d y\u00f6nelik \u00e7abalara da at\u0131fta bulundu.<\/p>\n
Bu anla\u015fmay\u0131 k\u00fcresel piyasalar i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck bir risk azaltma (de-risking) olay\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc k\u00f6kten de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n derhal yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131 \u00fczerindeki \u00f6nemli bir tehdidi ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131yor. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve riskli varl\u0131klarda geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 bir ralli beklentisiyle pozisyon alaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n
En do\u011frudan etki ham petrolde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ve sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %21\u2019i bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7ti\u011finden, g\u00fcvenli\u011finin garanti alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131 fiyattaki b\u00fcy\u00fck bir risk primini ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131yor. Brent ham petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa (short) pozisyon ar\u0131yoruz; fiyatlar\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki son zirveden, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 70-75 dolar band\u0131na gerileyebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu haberin CBOE Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (VIX) sert gerilemesine yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 beklenir. Jeopolitik gerilimler nedeniyle son bir ayd\u0131r 21 civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6ren endeksin 15\u2019in alt\u0131na sarkaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa korkular\u0131ndaki bu sakinle\u015fmeden do\u011frudan faydalanmak i\u00e7in VIX sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerji maliyetleri t\u00fcketiciler ve \u015firketler i\u00e7in fiilen bir vergi indirimi etkisi yarat\u0131r; bu nedenle genel hisse piyasas\u0131na ili\u015fkin pozitif (bullish) duru\u015fumuzu koruyoruz. Y\u00fcksek yak\u0131t maliyetleri nedeniyle marjlar\u0131 bask\u0131lanan havayollar\u0131, deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve kamyon ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi sekt\u00f6rler, al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan hedefler haline geliyor. Tarihsel olarak S&P 500, benzer \u00f6l\u00e7ekte petrol fiyat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerini izleyen \u00fc\u00e7 ayda ortalama %4-5 y\u00fckseli\u015f kaydetti.<\/p>\n
Anla\u015fman\u0131n tam metni hen\u00fcz yay\u0131mlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in temkinli kalmal\u0131y\u0131z. Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n gelecekteki uyumuna ba\u011flanmas\u0131, belirsizlik unsuru yarat\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, anla\u015fma detaylar\u0131 hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yarat\u0131rsa olas\u0131 ani geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in endekslerde bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spread) gibi \u00f6nceden tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli opsiyon stratejilerini a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak kullanaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Son dakika: Trump, \u0130ran\u2019la anla\u015fma ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn tamamen a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu. Risk primi eriyor; petrol ve VIX\u2019te d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, hisselerde ralli bekleniyor. Strateji: Brent short, VIX put, ta\u015f\u0131ma hisseleri call.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47763,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48851","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48851","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48851"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48851\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47763"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48851"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48851"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48851"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}