EUR\/USD\u2019nin ABD-\u0130ran Anla\u015fmas\u0131na ve Petrol Fiyatlar\u0131ndaki D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe Piyasa Tepkisi<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD, ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7er\u00e7eve anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan artan risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131na talebi azaltmas\u0131yla pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yatay seyretti. Parite, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 1,1662 zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 1,1598 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u0130ki \u00fclkenin, d\u00f6rt ayd\u0131r s\u00fcren sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirmeyi hedefleyen nihai anla\u015fmay\u0131 cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc imzalamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu geli\u015fme, k\u00fcresel petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131n ana g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131ndan biri olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden enerji arz\u0131nda aksama endi\u015felerini hafifletti. Haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda petrol fiyatlar\u0131 gerilerken, daha ucuz enerji ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisi i\u00e7in destekleyici g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ve euroya bir miktar dayanak sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Ancak, mutabakat zapt\u0131n\u0131n (MoU) detaylar\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 net olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan piyasalar temkinli kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, enflasyon risklerini de s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir ve ECB\u2019nin ge\u00e7en haftaki 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yeniden s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma yapmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltabilir. Odak \u015fimdi \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed faiz karar\u0131na kay\u0131yor. Piyasalar \u201cpas\u201d karar\u0131n\u0131 tamamen fiyatlarken, y\u00f6nlendirmeler %2 enflasyon hedefi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde yak\u0131ndan izlenecek. ABD\u2019de enflasyon may\u0131sta %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselirken, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %2,9 oldu; ekonomik aktivite diren\u00e7li seyrederken i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 yeniden ivme kazan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f \u00e7er\u00e7evesini sindirmesiyle EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1600 civar\u0131nda sa\u011flam durdu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Anla\u015fma, g\u00fcvenli liman dolara talebi azalt\u0131rken, paritede bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilitenin sadece birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %9\u2019un \u00fczerinden %7,5 seviyelerine geriledi\u011fi izlendi. Bu, opsiyon piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc resmi imza \u00f6ncesinde daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 d\u00f6nemini fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Buradaki ana belirleyici enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. Brent petrol, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131labilece\u011fi beklentisiyle ge\u00e7en hafta %8\u2019den fazla geriledi. Bu, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olan Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir destek unsuruna d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor; t\u00fcketiciler ve \u015firketler \u00fczerindeki maliyet bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hafifletiyor. Tarihsel olarak 2014-2015 d\u00f6neminde oldu\u011fu gibi petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc s\u00fcre\u00e7ler, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ne ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geldi.<\/p>\n
Petrolden gelen dezenflasyonist etkiye ra\u011fmen, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) teyakkuzda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde T\u00dcFE (HICP) enflasyonu ge\u00e7en ay %3,1 ile hedefin belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in, \u015fahin tonlu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar beklenebilir. Bu nedenle ECB\u2019nin temmuzda olas\u0131 ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmadan \u015fimdilik geri ad\u0131m ataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta dikkatler net bi\u00e7imde ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (Fed) \u00e7evrilmi\u015f durumda. CME FedWatch Tool verilerine g\u00f6re piyasalar \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc faizlerde \u201cpas\u201d olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %95 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Ancak as\u0131l odak, ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmeler olacak; zira vadeli piyasalar eyl\u00fcle kadar bir kez daha art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 olarak i\u015faret ediyor. Bu alttan alta \u015fahin e\u011filim, jeopolitik risk priminin ortadan kalkmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen dolarda belirgin bir zay\u0131flamay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130ma edilen volatilitedeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc dikkate alarak, 1,1450-1,1750 band\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla EUR\/USD \u201cstrangle\u201d sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapman\u0131n; yatay-konsolidasyon senaryosuna oynayan bir f\u0131rsat sundu\u011funu de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Opsiyon maliyetlerinin d\u00fc\u015fmesi, bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrpriz \u015fekilde bozulmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 mevcut pozisyonlar\u0131 hedge etmeyi de daha ucuz hale getiriyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, 1,1500 alt\u0131ndaki haftal\u0131k put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, uzun euro pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in \u015fu an daha maliyet-etkin bir y\u00f6ntem sunuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD-\u0130ran mutabakat\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131p dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131rken EUR\/USD 1,16 civar\u0131nda tutundu. Petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ni destekledi, volatilite geriledi; g\u00f6zler Fed pas\u0131 ve y\u00f6nlendirmesinde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48849","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48849","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48849"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48849\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48849"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48849"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48849"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}