Sterlin, piyasalar\u0131n Cenevre\u2019de Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc imzalanmas\u0131 beklenen ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na tepki vermesiyle %0,31 y\u00fckseldi; bu geli\u015fme risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na olan deste\u011fi azaltt\u0131. GBP\/USD 1,3436 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan petrol geriledi; WTI %4,40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Dolar da zay\u0131flad\u0131; ABD Dolar Endeksi %0,28 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 99,52\u2019ye indi. Anla\u015fman\u0131n, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mas\u0131 ve ABD Donanmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ablukas\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor; b\u00f6ylece k\u00fcresel petrol \u00fcretiminin be\u015fte birinin yeniden ak\u0131\u015fa d\u00f6nmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Dikkatler \u015fimdi Fed\u2019e \u00e7evriliyor. Enflasyon, %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh liderli\u011finde (d\u00f6rt y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi ba\u015fl\u0131yor) \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc bir politika karar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta yerel se\u00e7imler Makerfield ara se\u00e7imini de kaps\u0131yor; Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n kazanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Hafta ayr\u0131ca, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lacak \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde enflasyon ve istihdam verilerini getiriyor; faizlerin de\u011fi\u015fmeden b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde GBP\/USD 1,3430\u2019da, 1,3472 civar\u0131ndaki basit hareketli ortalama k\u00fcmelenmesinin alt\u0131nda bulunuyor; 1,3159\u2019dan gelen trend \u00e7izgisi deste\u011fi izlenirken RSI (14) 50\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Ani ABD-\u0130ran uzla\u015fmas\u0131 enerji piyasalar\u0131nda \u015fok etkisi yaratt\u0131 ve WTI ham petrolde Mart 2023\u2019ten bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck tek g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe neden oldu. Fiyatlar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz ve 2014\u2019teki arz fazlas\u0131 d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyelere benzer \u015fekilde ham petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni volatilitede bir s\u0131\u00e7rama g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu ortam, \u00f6n ay vadeli ham petrol kontratlar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f yaparken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruma i\u00e7in put alman\u0131n temkinli bir strateji olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki bu \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f, enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc k\u00f6kl\u00fc bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015ftirerek Fed\u2019in bu hafta beklenen faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 son derece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 h\u00e2le getiriyor. Buna paralel olarak Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemlerinde tamamen bir yeniden fiyatlama g\u00f6rd\u00fck; piyasa art\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %10\u2019un alt\u0131na indiriyor; bu oran ge\u00e7en hafta %70\u2019in \u00fczerindeydi. Odak \u015fimdi, yeni Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc nas\u0131l ileti\u015fimle y\u00f6netece\u011fine kay\u0131yor; bu, ABD Dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in ba\u015fl\u0131ca belirleyici olacak.<\/p>\n
Geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n besledi\u011fi GBP\/USD rallisinde pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131rken, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k yerel se\u00e7imleri ve BoE toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde daha temkinli bir duru\u015fa ge\u00e7iyoruz. Burnham\u2019\u0131n olas\u0131 zaferi, maliye politikas\u0131 belirsizli\u011fi yaratarak \u0130ngiltere devlet tahvilleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilir ve sterlini zay\u0131flatabilir. Bu nedenle, 1,3159\u2019daki kritik destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir sarkmaya kar\u015f\u0131 uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 hedge etmek amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli GBP\/USD put opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle dolar\u0131n gerilemesi, sadece sterlinin \u00f6tesinde f\u0131rsatlar yarat\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015feleri azald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda genellikle daha iyi performans g\u00f6steren Avustralya ve Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131 gibi emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 para birimlerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na talebin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zlemliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, talep tahribat\u0131ndan kaynaklanmayan sert petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri (\u00f6r. 1991\u2019de K\u00f6rfez Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nem) bu para birimlerinin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda destek bulmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Cenevre\u2019de beklenen ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 piyasalar\u0131 ters k\u00f6\u015fe yapt\u0131: Sterlin %0,31 artt\u0131, dolar endeksi 99,52\u2019ye indi. Petrol \u00e7ak\u0131ld\u0131; Fed\/BoE kararlar\u0131 ve GBP\/USD 1,3159 deste\u011fi odakta.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47772,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48847","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48847","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48847"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48847\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47772"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48847"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48847"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48847"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}