ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 sona erdirecek bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve \u00fczerinde anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan alt\u0131n %3\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckseldi; XAU\/USD\u2019yi yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.367 dolara ta\u015f\u0131yarak ge\u00e7en haftaki yakla\u015f\u0131k yedi ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 4.023 dolardan ba\u015flayan toparlanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de bir Mutabakat Muht\u0131ras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (MoU) imzalanmas\u0131 beklenirken, risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fim ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerken WTI yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en zay\u0131f seviyesine gerileyerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 79 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
\u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n erken d\u00f6neminde metal, daha \u00e7ok faiz hassasiyeti y\u00fcksek bir varl\u0131k gibi i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; Petrol\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015f enflasyon endi\u015felerini k\u00f6r\u00fckleyerek Fed gibi merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Piyasalar\u0131n bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131yla alt\u0131n sava\u015f boyunca yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 geriledi; ancak enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gev\u015feme, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 bu y\u00f6ndeki bahisleri azaltmaya itti. Bu toplant\u0131da faizlerin de\u011fi\u015fmeden b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 genel beklenti. Enflasyon Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinin iki kat\u0131ndan fazla seyrederken, teknik g\u00f6stergeler XAU\/USD\u2019nin 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.415 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, RSI\u2019\u0131n ise 45 civar\u0131nda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor; diren\u00e7 4.682 dolar b\u00f6lgesinde, destek ise 4.149 dolar civar\u0131nda ve ard\u0131ndan 4.000 dolar seviyesinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki ani bar\u0131\u015f \u00e7er\u00e7evesiyle birlikte piyasadan klasik bir jeopolitik risk priminin h\u0131zla buharla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi (OVX), 45 civar\u0131ndaki son zirvelerden 30\u2019a gerileyerek piyasadaki rahatlamay\u0131 yans\u0131tt\u0131. \u0130lk a\u015famada tepkimiz, hem fiyattaki hem de volatilitedeki bu sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in WTI ham petrol\u00fcnde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131nda temkinli iyimseriz; ancak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki teknik diren\u00e7leri ve anla\u015fman\u0131n nihai olarak netle\u015fmesine dair belirsizli\u011fi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulunduruyoruz. Alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite %25\u2019in \u00fczerinden yakla\u015f\u0131k %18\u2019e geriledi; bu durum uzun opsiyonlar\u0131 ucuzlat\u0131rken, ayn\u0131 zamanda piyasadaki korkunun da azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde riskimizi s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak 4.500 dolara do\u011fru bir hareketi hedefleyen XAU\/USD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread stratejileri ba\u015flat\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, Federal Rezerv beklentilerini agresif bi\u00e7imde yeniden fiyatlad\u0131; fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri bu y\u0131l faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %5\u2019in alt\u0131na indirirken, bu oran daha ge\u00e7en hafta %30 d\u00fczeyindeydi. Bu durum, 104 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na net bi\u00e7imde k\u0131ran ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) belirgin \u015fekilde bask\u0131l\u0131yor. \u00d6zellikle Euro ve Japon Yeni kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha fazla dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
1991\u2019de Birinci K\u00f6rfez Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n sona ermesinin ard\u0131ndan petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f gibi tarihsel \u00f6rnekler ak\u0131lda tutulmal\u0131. Bununla birlikte, mutabakat muht\u0131ras\u0131 hen\u00fcz resmen imzalanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in temkin pay\u0131 korunmal\u0131. Bu nedenle vadeli kontratlar\u0131 do\u011frudan a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa satarak s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z risk almak yerine, tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli opsiyon stratejileri kullan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bir sonraki b\u00fcy\u00fck kataliz\u00f6r, Fed\u2019in bu \u00c7ar\u015famba a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 para politikas\u0131 karar\u0131. Son T\u00dcFE verisinin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda h\u00e2l\u00e2 %4,1 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, enflasyona ili\u015fkin Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n tonunda bir de\u011fi\u015fim olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz. D\u00fc\u015fen enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n dezenflasyonist bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n kabul edilmesi, de\u011ferli metaller ve hisse senetlerinde yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f \u00e7er\u00e7evesiyle risk primi eridi: alt\u0131n %3+ s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131p 4.367$\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, petrol 79$\u2019a indi. Dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131yor; Fed \u00f6ncesi faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %5 alt\u0131na \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47774,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48844","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48844","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48844"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48844\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47774"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48844"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48844"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48844"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}