BNY\u2019nin bir yorum notunda, jeopolitik tansiyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ba\u011fl\u0131 iyile\u015fen risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n, piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan uzakla\u015ft\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Daha geni\u015f resim daha sakin g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de i\u015flem ko\u015fullar\u0131 enflasyon, faiz oranlar\u0131 ve sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler taraf\u0131ndan \u015fekillendirilmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. <\/p>\n
Piyasalar, ECB\u2019nin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n etkilerini Fed ve BoJ\u2019dan gelecek kararlarla birlikte tart\u0131yor; faizlerin \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek\u201d kalmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 masada. \u00c7in taraf\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn d\u0131\u015f talep ve istikrarl\u0131 notlarla desteklendi\u011fi ifade edilirken, devam eden hisse senedi \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve defansif tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve piyasa dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin temkinli duru\u015fun s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik riskler azalsa bile, piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye kilitlendi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. May\u0131s ABD T\u00dcFE verisinin %3,1 gelmesi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir rahatlama sa\u011flad\u0131; ancak \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek\u201d faiz anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 kayda de\u011fer \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015ftirmiyor. Bu nedenle, bu ay\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde yap\u0131lacak FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u015fahin bir \u201cpas ge\u00e7me\u201d senaryosuna pozisyonlanmak i\u00e7in Fed Funds vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine opsiyonlar kullan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki bu belirsizlik oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutuyor; VIX endeksi 19 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor. Sert piyasa hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 belirli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde koruma ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 ihtiyatl\u0131 buluyoruz. Fed duyurusu sonras\u0131nda iki y\u00f6nde de anlaml\u0131 fiyat hareketinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in SPX endeksinde straddle stratejilerini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 \u015fahin duru\u015funu korurken, kal\u0131c\u0131 s\u00f6ylentiler Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) yak\u0131nda politikas\u0131n\u0131 ayarlayabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; bu da USD\/JPY paritesini 162 civar\u0131ndaki \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvelere ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bu durum, riskten korunma veya spek\u00fclasyon ama\u00e7l\u0131 d\u00f6viz t\u00fcrevlerini \u00f6zellikle ilgi \u00e7ekici k\u0131l\u0131yor. Carry trade pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesini tetikleyebilecek herhangi bir BoJ sinyalini yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019in y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %5\u2019lik ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 belirli bir destek sa\u011flasa da, ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ana kara hisselerinden 15 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131yla sermaye ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc not ediyoruz. Bu, toparlanman\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik temkinin devam etti\u011fini teyit ediyor. \u0130lave zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 maliyet etkin bir hedge olarak \u00c7in odakl\u0131 ETF\u2019lerde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Genel tema, getirilerin y\u00fcksek kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme odakl\u0131 varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmas\u0131. Tarihsel olarak bu t\u00fcr ortamlar, vade riskinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu (\u201cshort duration\u201d) stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r. Getirilerin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 veya daha da y\u00fckselmesi senaryosuna pozisyonlanmak i\u00e7in uzun vadeli Hazine tahvili ETF\u2019leri \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik tansiyon d\u00fc\u015fse de piyasa rahatlam\u0131yor: Fed\/ECB\/BoJ kararlar\u0131, \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d ve sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131 g\u00fcndemde. VIX 19; opsiyonla korunma, SPX straddle, USD\/JPY ve \u00c7in put\u2019lar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47670,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48843","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48843","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48843"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48843\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47670"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48843"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48843"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48843"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}