ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman talebi zay\u0131flarken \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazand\u0131. USD\/CHF g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,60 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 0,7923 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. D\u00f6rt ayd\u0131r s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n sona yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131 ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc resmi bir imza t\u00f6reni beklentisiyle risk i\u015ftah\u0131 artt\u0131. 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir mutabakat zapt\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda ABD, \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ablukay\u0131 kald\u0131racak; \u0130ran ise ticari gemi ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7acak. Bu s\u0131rada n\u00fckleer program, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n hafifletilmesi ve dondurulmu\u015f varl\u0131klar\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler s\u00fcrecek.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131 ve petrol haftaya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bo\u015flu\u011fuyla ba\u015flad\u0131; Dolar Endeksi (DXY) yakla\u015f\u0131k bir haftan\u0131n dip seviyeleri civar\u0131nda 99,46 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerilemenin y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini azaltmas\u0131yla ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de yeniden de\u011ferlendirdi. Karar\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 beklenirken, faizlerin de\u011fi\u015fmeden b\u0131rak\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 genel kabul g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. ABD\u2019de enflasyon May\u0131s\u2019ta %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselerek %2 hedefine k\u0131yasla iki kat\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyonu \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) %0\u2013%2 band\u0131n\u0131n alt s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yak\u0131n seyretti. SNB\u2019nin Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc faizleri %0\u2019da tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor; Reuters anketine g\u00f6re 28 ekonomistin tamam\u0131 bu y\u0131l de\u011fi\u015fiklik \u00f6ng\u00f6rmezken, d\u00f6rd\u00fc 2027\u2019de bir veya iki adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel belirsizli\u011fin \u00f6nemli bir kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rmas\u0131yla birlikte, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Potansiyel olarak daha az \u015fahin bir Fed ile n\u00f6tr bir \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, frang\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde destekliyor. USD\/CHF\u2019de 0,7920 civar\u0131ndaki diplerin test edildi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu seviye 2023 sonundaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kilit bir unsur. WTI ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u0131ras\u0131nda 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce %10\u2019dan fazla gerileyerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 82 dolar civar\u0131na indi. Enerji maliyetlerindeki bu keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, ilerleyen d\u00f6nemde enflasyon verilerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc etkileyerek Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7eyi zay\u0131flatabilir. Bunun dolar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurmas\u0131n\u0131 ve riskli varl\u0131klara destek vermesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda, USD\/CHF paritesindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesinden fayda sa\u011flayan opsiyonlara bak\u0131yoruz. 0,7900 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 A\u011fustos vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, parite a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimini koruduk\u00e7a iyi bir risk-getiri profili sunabilir. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc SNB toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n piyasaya etkisiz (non-event) kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu da franka y\u00f6nelik k\u0131sa vadeli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu gerilimin azalmas\u0131 piyasa volatilitesini de sert \u015fekilde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. VIX endeksi, sava\u015f d\u00f6nemi zirveleri olan 25\u2019in \u00fczerinden sadece birka\u00e7 seansta 15\u2019in alt\u0131na geriledi. Jeopolitik riskin fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla volatilitenin s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmaya devam edece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda b\u00fcy\u00fck hisse endekslerinde iron condor gibi stratejilerle prim satmay\u0131 cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Takip edilmesi gereken ana ba\u015fl\u0131k, yaz d\u00f6neminin tonunu belirleyecek olan \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 olacak. Faizlerin sabit kalmas\u0131 kesin gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, d\u00fc\u015fen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n dezenflasyonist etkisini kabul eden bir metne y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Fed\u2019in gelecekteki enflasyon konusunda daha az endi\u015feli oldu\u011funa i\u015faret eden herhangi bir ifade, dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasay\u0131 rahatlatt\u0131: g\u00fcvenli liman dolara talep zay\u0131flad\u0131, USD\/CHF %0,60 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 0,7923\u2019te. Petrol geriledi, Fed beklentileri yumu\u015fad\u0131; SNB stabil, frang g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48842","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48842","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48842"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48842\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48842"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48842"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48842"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}