ABD i\u00e7in NAHB Konut Piyasas\u0131 Endeksi haziranda 35 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek piyasa beklentisi olan 36\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Veri, ay boyunca konut in\u015faat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131f seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Ay\u0131n verisi endeksi tahminlerin bir puan alt\u0131nda b\u0131rakarak NAHB anketiyle \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen ko\u015fullar\u0131n beklenenden daha yumu\u015fak oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti. B\u00fclten kapsam\u0131nda ilave bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Haziran konut piyasas\u0131 endeksi 35 ile, bekledi\u011fimiz 36 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda geldi. Bu, konut in\u015faat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 g\u00fcveninin belirgin bi\u00e7imde negatif b\u00f6lgede kalmaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor ve yeni in\u015faat faaliyetlerinde s\u00fcregelen bir yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret ediyor. Bunu, y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha fazla bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n teyidi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015f\u0131k %6,75 seviyesinde seyreden mevcut 30 y\u0131l vadeli sabit mortgage faizleri, konut piyasas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcndeki temel engel konumunda. Bu zay\u0131f veri noktas\u0131, Fed\u2019in yakla\u015fan toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda daha g\u00fcvercin bir duru\u015f benimsemesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Y\u0131l sonundan \u00f6nce bir faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; bu da faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcrev enstr\u00fcmanlar\u0131 daha cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu rapor \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ITB ve XHB gibi konut in\u015faat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 ETF\u2019lerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Endeks bu kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckken sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn genellikle birka\u00e7 ay boyunca zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6sterdi\u011fine i\u015faret eden tarihsel veriler do\u011frultusunda put opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 muhtemelen tercih edece\u011fiz. \u00d6rne\u011fin 2022\u2019de benzer zay\u0131f okumalar, bu hisselerde belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Daha az yeni konut, kereste ve bak\u0131r gibi in\u015faat malzemelerine olan talebi de azaltacakt\u0131r. Zay\u0131fl\u0131k sinyalleri i\u00e7in emtia vadeli i\u015flemlerini izleyerek k\u0131sa pozisyon ba\u015flatmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Konut taraf\u0131ndaki bu yumu\u015fama, ekonomiye y\u00f6nelik daha geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 endi\u015felerimize eklenerek S&P 500 \u00fczerinde koruyucu put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndemimize al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu t\u00fcr beklenmedik ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131klar piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Bu nedenle VIX endeksi \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almay\u0131 da de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu, konut piyasas\u0131ndaki durgunlu\u011fun ekonominin di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rlerine yay\u0131labilece\u011fi endi\u015fesiyle tetiklenebilecek olas\u0131 bir piyasa geri \u00e7ekilmesine kar\u015f\u0131 bir koruma arac\u0131 i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz zay\u0131fl\u0131k: ABD NAHB Konut Endeksi haziranda 35\u2019e gerileyerek 36 beklentisini ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131. Y\u00fcksek mortgage faizleri g\u00fcveni bask\u0131l\u0131yor; Fed\u2019de g\u00fcvercinle\u015fme, konut ETF\u2019lerinde short\/put ve VIX korumas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47702,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48841","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48841","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48841"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48841\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47702"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48841"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48841"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48841"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}