ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance, Reuters\u2019\u0131n aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc CNBC\u2019ye yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada Washington\u2019un H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201cuzun vadede \u00fccretsiz ve a\u00e7\u0131k\u201d kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ki a\u015famal\u0131 bir do\u011frulama s\u00fcrecinin planland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Vance, bir\u00e7ok ayr\u0131nt\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 netle\u015fmedi\u011fini ve g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin Tahran\u2019\u0131n nerede taviz vermeye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu test edece\u011fini ekledi.<\/p>\n
Vance ayr\u0131ca ABD\u2019nin Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lacak bir imza t\u00f6renine \u0130ranl\u0131 temsilcilerin tam bir yelpazede kat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini ve metnin bu hafta yay\u0131mlanabilece\u011fini ifade etti. \u0130srail\u2019in de, \u201cyeni bir Orta Do\u011fu\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te masada yer alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekledi. A\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar Endeksi g\u00fcn i\u00e7i band\u0131n\u0131n alt yar\u0131s\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda 99,50 seviyesinde %0,3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin yorumlar\u0131 petrol oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, 2019\u2019daki tanker olaylar\u0131nda Brent petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn bir g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 \u00f6rne\u011finde oldu\u011fu gibi, bu dar bo\u011fazdaki gerilimler b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar. Bu nedenle, anla\u015fman\u0131n ak\u0131beti bu Cuma netle\u015fti\u011finde ya\u015fanabilecek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir harekete oynakl\u0131k alarak (\u00f6rne\u011fin straddle stratejileriyle) ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir anla\u015fman\u0131n getirece\u011fi rahatlaman\u0131n daha geni\u015f piyasa taraf\u0131ndan yeterince fiyatlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) \u015fu anda 18 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bize g\u00f6re bu seviye, jeopolitik riskin ortadan kalkmas\u0131 durumunda ya\u015fanabilecek potansiyel d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tam yans\u0131tm\u0131yor. Bu beklentiyle, y\u0131l\u0131n diplerine yak\u0131n 13 seviyesine do\u011fru bir hareket \u00f6ng\u00f6rerek VIX call spread\u2019leri satarak pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131yla ilk etapta zay\u0131flamas\u0131, baz\u0131 d\u00f6viz paritelerinde yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 bir hareket olabilir. Oynakl\u0131k oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z USD\/CAD; tarihsel olarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir negatif korelasyon g\u00f6sterir ve bu ili\u015fki \u00e7o\u011fu zaman -0,7\u2019nin de alt\u0131na iner. E\u011fer anla\u015fma imzalan\u0131r ve ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferse, Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu da uzun USD\/CAD call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir i\u015flem h\u00e2line getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca bu anla\u015fman\u0131n hayata ge\u00e7mesi durumunda belirgin kazananlar ve kaybedenler i\u00e7in haz\u0131rl\u0131k yap\u0131yoruz. Jet yak\u0131t\u0131n\u0131n havayolu i\u015fletme maliyetlerinin %30\u2019una kadar \u00e7\u0131kabildi\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir gerileme g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek unsuru olur; bu nedenle ula\u015ft\u0131rma ETF\u2019lerinde call opsiyonu al\u0131yoruz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, enerji pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 hedge etmek i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol arama ve \u00fcretim endekslerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 g\u00fcndemde: Vance, uzun vadede a\u00e7\u0131k kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; \u0130ran\u2019la anla\u015fma Cuma netle\u015febilir. Petrol oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 artarken straddle, VIX call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, USD\/CAD ve ula\u015ft\u0131rma opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47738,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48837","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48837","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48837"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48837\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47738"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48837"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48837"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48837"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}