Japon yeni, jeopolitik gerilimin azalmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda riskin yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131yla birlikte yeniden oda\u011fa geldi. ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 takiben H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 riskli varl\u0131klar\u0131 desteklerken, dikkat \u00e7apraz piyasa pozisyonlanmas\u0131na ve carry trade\u2019lerin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00f6n\u00fc belirliyor; piyasalar JPY, KRW ve USD dinamiklerini, d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi riskini de g\u00f6zeterek izliyor. Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar ayr\u0131ca ECB\u2019nin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n etkilerini de\u011ferlendirirken, yakla\u015fan Fed ve BoJ kararlar\u0131 da g\u00fcndemde; faiz beklentileri k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek\u201d bir ortama i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131yla risk i\u015ftah\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, yen \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n yeniden artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ile Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) aras\u0131ndaki belirgin politika fark\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor. Bu arka plan, yenin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY paritesi \u015fu anda 165 seviyesini test ediyor; bu b\u00f6lge tarihsel olarak yetkililerden s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar gelmesine neden olmu\u015ftu. Fed fonlama faizi %4,75\u2019te kal\u0131rken BoJ\u2019un politika faizi yaln\u0131zca %0,1 seviyesinde; faiz fark\u0131 carry trade\u2019i cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Daha y\u00fcksek getirili varl\u0131klar\u0131 almak i\u00e7in yen bor\u00e7lan\u0131lan pozisyonlarda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019ndan (MoF) gelebilecek m\u00fcdahale riskinin y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, basit spot pozisyonlardan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite %11\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu da ikili (binary) riskin y\u00f6netiminde opsiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131\u015fl\u0131 bir ara\u00e7 haline getiriyor. USD\/JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n, olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalan\u0131rken potansiyel zarar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlaman\u0131n bir yolu oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 piyasa i\u00e7in bir sonraki b\u00fcy\u00fck kataliz\u00f6rler. BoJ\u2019un gelecek haftaki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ton de\u011fi\u015fimi olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izleyece\u011fiz; olas\u0131l\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. \u0130\u015flemciler, a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan olu\u015fabilecek anl\u0131k fiyat tepkisi \u00fczerine haftal\u0131k opsiyonlarla pozisyon alabilir.<\/p>\n
2022 sonu ve 2024\u2019teki m\u00fcdahaleleri unutmamak gerekir; bu d\u00f6nemlerde USD\/JPY\u2019de birka\u00e7 yenlik sert ve ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yetkililer beklemeyi tercih edebilir; ancak yenin de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n mevcut h\u0131z\u0131 muhtemelen onlar\u0131 rahats\u0131z ediyor. Bu tarihsel \u00f6rnek nedeniyle, kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 spot i\u015flemler yerine riski tan\u0131ml\u0131 (defined-risk) bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Yen yeniden man\u015fetlerde: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz sonras\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131 artarken USD\/JPY 165\u2019i zorluyor. Fed\u2013BoJ faiz fark\u0131 carry trade\u2019i b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor; MoF m\u00fcdahalesi riski y\u00fckselirken opsiyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47778,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48832","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48832","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48832"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48832\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47778"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48832"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48832"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48832"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}