Kanada Dolar\u0131, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda belirgin bir y\u00f6n bulamazken, USD\/CAD 1,3950\u2019nin \u00fczerinde dalgaland\u0131 ve y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen 1,4020 zirvesi yak\u0131nlarda kald\u0131. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirip H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7may\u0131 hedefleyen bir mutabakat zapt\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberlerin ard\u0131ndan risk i\u015ftah\u0131 y\u00fckseldi; bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te ABD Dolar\u0131 da maj\u00f6r para birimleri aras\u0131nda en zay\u0131f performans\u0131 kaydetti. Ancak CAD bundan faydalanamad\u0131; zira d\u00fc\u015fen ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 Kanada\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret hadlerini bask\u0131lad\u0131 ve Brent \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine geriledi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) toplant\u0131s\u0131na odakland\u0131. Politika faizinin de\u011fi\u015ftirilmeyece\u011fi beklense de, g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f faiz ve ekonomik projeksiyonlar ile Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh\u2019\u00fcn bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00f6nlendirmeye (forward guidance) ili\u015fkin olas\u0131 bir de\u011fi\u015fim yak\u0131ndan izlenecek. Kanada\u2019da ise Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) ge\u00e7en hafta faizleri sabit tutarak y\u00fcksek enflasyon ile zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 zorlu\u011fa i\u015faret etti; CAD, ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ge\u00e7en kas\u0131mdan bu yana ilk kez 1,4000 seviyesinin \u00fczerine sarkt\u0131. Merkez bankalar\u0131 genellikle fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 (\u00e7o\u011fu zaman %2 civar\u0131 enflasyon hedefi) g\u00f6zetir; siyasi olarak ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z kurullar taraf\u0131ndan belirlenen politika faizini parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma veya gev\u015feme yoluyla kullan\u0131r ve ba\u015fkan, sessizlik d\u00f6nemi (blackout period) kurallar\u0131 alt\u0131nda hareket eder.<\/p>\n
USD\/CAD paritesini bir denge durumunda g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz: Bir yanda genelde zay\u0131flayan ABD Dolar\u0131, di\u011fer yanda d\u00fc\u015fen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n Kanada ekonomisi \u00fczerindeki do\u011frudan olumsuz etkisi. Piyasan\u0131n son jeopolitik tansiyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc sindirmesiyle parite 1,3920\u20131,3980 aras\u0131nda dar bir bantta dalgalan\u0131yor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7 m\u00fccadelesi, y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir hareket i\u00e7in muhtemelen yeni ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kataliz\u00f6re ihtiya\u00e7 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclme, Brent vadeli i\u015flemlerini varil ba\u015f\u0131na 78 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na \u00e7ekti; bu, ge\u00e7en haftada %8\u2019in \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve marttan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye. Bu durum CAD \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor; ihracat gelirlerinin d\u00fc\u015fmesine ve Kanada ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin frenlenmesine yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 muhtemel. Kanada\u2019n\u0131n ana ihracat kalemindeki belirgin gerileme, para biriminin daha yumu\u015fak ABD dolar\u0131ndan normalde elde edebilece\u011fi kazan\u0131m\u0131 n\u00f6trl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda temel belirleyicinin, \u00f6zellikle bu \u00c7ar\u015famba yap\u0131lacak Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 ile birlikte, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm fark\u0131 (ayr\u0131\u015fma) olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Kanada\u2019n\u0131n son GSYH verisi ayl\u0131k bazda zay\u0131f %0,1 gelirken, y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon %3,2 ile kat\u0131 seyrini koruyor; bu da BoC\u2019nin temkinli duru\u015funu destekliyor. ABD ekonomisi daha diren\u00e7li g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor: \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon %3,5\u2019te kal\u0131rken, son istihdam raporu 210 binlik sa\u011flam bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Bu arka planla birlikte, Fed karar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7evresinde oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Yeni Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh\u2019ten g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karan \u015fahin tonda (hawkish) bir mesaj gelmesi, USD\/CAD\u2019i kolayl\u0131kla kritik 1,4020 direncinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. T\u00fcrev piyasalar\u0131 da bu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor; bir ayl\u0131k risk reversal\u2019lar, USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131na k\u0131yasla \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir primle fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, USD\/CAD\u2019de olas\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131 opsiyonlarla pozisyonlanmay\u0131 de\u011ferli buluyoruz. Al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) ya da call spread almak, y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana zirvelerin \u00fczerindeki bir harekete tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskle kat\u0131lma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar. Fed\u2019in yeni ekonomik projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fimiz bu d\u00f6nemde, ABD ekonomisinin g\u00f6rece g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc teyit edebilecek bir tablo ihtimali nedeniyle bu strateji \u00f6zellikle temkinli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz haberleri risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltse de petrol \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc CAD\u2019i bask\u0131lad\u0131; USD\/CAD 1,3920\u20131,3980 band\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Fed\u2019de \u015fahin sinyal 1,4020 \u00fcst\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lma getirebilir; opsiyonla pozisyon \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48830","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48830","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48830"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48830\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48830"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48830"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48830"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}