ABD dolar\u0131, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik anla\u015fman\u0131n enerji arz\u0131na ili\u015fkin k\u0131sa vadeli endi\u015feleri azaltmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan daha geni\u015f bir risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (risk-on) ortam\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, hisse senetleri, tahviller ve d\u00f6vizler genelinde geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 bir hareketi desteklerken, FX fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel risk alg\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimlere s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde ba\u011fl\u0131 kalmas\u0131na neden oldu.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131 politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na y\u00fcksek derecede duyarl\u0131 kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, JPY ve KRW ile birlikte USD y\u00f6n\u00fcne ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmeler yeniden yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Odak; merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d risklerinin etkileri \u00fczerinde yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor; carry trade\u2019ler ve olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahale riskleri de yak\u0131ndan izleniyor. Enflasyon, faizler ve sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin kal\u0131c\u0131 endi\u015feler, alg\u0131 iyile\u015fse bile pozisyonlanmay\u0131 \u015fekillendirmeye devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan jeopolitik tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle birlikte belirgin bir risk-on alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Enerji kaynakl\u0131 volatilitenin azalmas\u0131 muhtemel; bu da prim geliri elde etmek i\u00e7in petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan uygun bir d\u00f6nem olabilir. Nitekim CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (OVX) son bir haftada %15 gerileyerek y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine yak\u0131n bir d\u00fczeyde dengelendi\u011fini not ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki politika farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 art\u0131k ana g\u00fcndem maddesi; \u00f6zellikle ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131nda. Fed\u2019in son toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen %5,25 seviyesinde sabit tutmas\u0131 ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) faizi s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n seviyelerde korumas\u0131, dolar\/yen carry trade\u2019ini olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ilave yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyele maruz kalmak i\u00e7in USD\/JPY paritesinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 ak\u0131ll\u0131 bir y\u00f6ntem olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ancak, yenin \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kaybetti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde daha \u00f6nce devreye giren Japon yetkililerden gelebilecek m\u00fcdahale riskine kar\u015f\u0131 dikkatli olunmal\u0131. 2022 sonu ve 2024\u2019te para birimini desteklemek \u00fczere m\u00fcdahale ettiklerinde yenin sert \u015fekilde de\u011fer kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. USD\/JPY\u2019de ucuz, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, ani bir ters harekete kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir sigorta i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu olumlu risk ortam\u0131, G\u00fcney Kore Wonu gibi para birimlerini de daha cazip hale getiriyor. G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin son d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 verilerinin beklentileri %8 a\u015farak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret etmesi nedeniyle KRW\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7lenme potansiyeli g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6zellikle zay\u0131flayan Japon yeni kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc won senaryosundan faydalanan stratejileri de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz anla\u015fmas\u0131yla risk i\u015ftah\u0131 artt\u0131, dolar risk-on dalgas\u0131nda. OVX %15 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: petrol opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcndemde. Fed-BoJ ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 USD\/JPY carry\u2019yi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; m\u00fcdahale riskine put sigortas\u0131. KRW, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracatla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48828","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48828","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48828"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48828\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48828"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48828"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48828"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}