ECB Y\u00f6netim Konseyi \u00fcyesi Peter Kazimir, enerji \u015fokunun ekonomiye yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ederek para politikas\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 yapacak i\u015fi oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi; ECB\u2019nin dikkatli olmas\u0131 ve gerekti\u011finde harekete ge\u00e7meye haz\u0131r bulunmas\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma alt\u0131nda dahi \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131ndan rahats\u0131zl\u0131k duydu\u011funu belirten Kazimir, gelen veriler de\u011fi\u015ftik\u00e7e \u00e7evik kal\u0131rken ilave ad\u0131mlar\u0131n \u00f6nden y\u00fcklemeli at\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tercih etti\u011fini ima etti.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klamalar, ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f \u00e7er\u00e7evesine ra\u011fmen geldi; Kazimir, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki hasar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde geri \u00e7evrilemeyece\u011fini vurgulad\u0131. Euro an\u0131nda belirgin bir tepki vermedi; ancak EUR\/USD daha sonra %0,37 y\u00fckselerek pozitif piyasa seans\u0131nda 1,1610 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Para politikas\u0131n\u0131n daha yapacak i\u015fi oldu\u011fu giderek netle\u015fiyor; bu da Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u015fu an fiyatlanandan daha agresif olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde may\u0131s ay\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon verisinin inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %2,8 gelmesiyle, k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin daha y\u00fcksek seyredece\u011fi bir senaryoya g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Bu, faiz swaplar\u0131nda sabit \u00f6demeyi (pay fixed) de\u011ferlendirmeyi veya daha \u015fahin bir ECB beklentisini \u00f6nden fiyatlamak i\u00e7in Euribor vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f yapmay\u0131 i\u00e7eriyor.<\/p>\n
Yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken i\u015fin \u00f6nden y\u00fcklemeli bi\u00e7imde tamamlanmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir tercih oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da yak\u0131n vadede daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) 2022\u2019de kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kan enflasyonu frenlemek i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck ve kararl\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, ECB\u2019nin mevcut %4,25 mevduat faizinde bir \u201cduraklama\u201d bekleyen piyasa, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yanl\u0131\u015f de\u011ferlendiriyor olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u015fahin sinyallere ra\u011fmen euro hen\u00fcz belirleyici bir tepki vermedi ve 1,1610 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Daha y\u00fcksek faiz beklentilerinin destek sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda euro i\u00e7in bunu potansiyel bir al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmak amac\u0131yla EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Son ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f \u00e7er\u00e7evesi, enflasyonu besleyen temel enerji fiyat\u0131 sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede \u00e7\u00f6zemedi. Brent petrol h\u00e2l\u00e2 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar civar\u0131nda tutunuyor; bu seviye ekonomi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye yetecek kadar y\u00fcksek. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki tedarik zincirlerine verilen zarar bir gecede telafi edilemeyece\u011finden, bu enerji \u015foku kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda teyakkuzun s\u00fcrmesi gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u015fahin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, daha y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi zay\u0131flatabilece\u011fi endi\u015fesiyle Avrupa hisselerinde temkinli kalmam\u0131za neden oluyor. Euro Stoxx 50 gibi ana endekslerde koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Benzer \u015fekilde kredi spreadleri geni\u015fleyebilece\u011finden, \u015firket tahvili pozisyonlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik maruziyeti g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7iriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ECB\u2019den \u015fahin mesaj: Kazimir, enerji \u015fokunun s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %2 \u00fcst\u00fcnde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131; \u00f6nden y\u00fcklemeli ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma sinyali verdi. Euro s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tepkiyle 1,1610\u2019a y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47676,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48825","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48825","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48825"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48825\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47676"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48825"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48825"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48825"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}