AUD\/USD, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,7090\u2019daki 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck zirvelerden geri \u00e7ekildi ancak pozitif b\u00f6lgede kalarak 0,7070 civar\u0131nda, daha sonra ise 0,7072 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Paritedeki \u00f6nceki y\u00fckseli\u015f, ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n duyurulmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi; bu geli\u015fme petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk gelirken, risk i\u015ftah\u0131na duyarl\u0131 Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 da destekledi. Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yo\u011fun takvim nedeniyle fiyat hareketleri daha temkinli bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme b\u00fcr\u00fcnd\u00fc. Piyasalar Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA) karar\u0131n\u0131, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ise ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (Fed) bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Parite, haziran ba\u015f\u0131ndaki zirvelerden \u00e7izilen al\u00e7alan trend \u00e7izgisinin \u00fczerinde tutunurken, G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) \u00fcst orta bantta kalmaya devam ediyor ve Hareketli Ortalama Yak\u0131nsama Iraksama (MACD) pozitif b\u00f6lgede bulunuyor. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 0,7090 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki %50 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesi, ard\u0131ndan 0,7113 civar\u0131ndaki %61,8 seviyesi ve 4-5 Haziran zirvelerinin %78,6 d\u00fczeltmeyle kesi\u015fti\u011fi 0,7145\u2019teki daha geni\u015f tavan olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Destek 0,7060 yak\u0131n\u0131nda ve 0,7050 civar\u0131nda konumlan\u0131rken, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc dip olan 0,7020 ve iki ayl\u0131k dip b\u00f6lgesi 0,6980 seviyelerinde izleniyor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131, risklerin belirgin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelen \u00f6nemli bir geli\u015fme olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da do\u011fal olarak Avustralya dolar\u0131 gibi b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye duyarl\u0131 para birimlerine fayda sa\u011flar. 0,7090\u2019a do\u011fru ilk hamle bu iyimser alg\u0131y\u0131 teyit ediyor. Bununla birlikte, RBA ve Fed\u2019in bu hafta toplant\u0131 yapacak olmas\u0131 nedeniyle z\u0131mni volatilitenin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 0,7100 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip AUD\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131n almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan olas\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lma rallisine kat\u0131lmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flarken, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski \u00f6denen prim ile s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Yeni Fed ba\u015fkan\u0131ndan gelecek g\u00fcvercin bir sinyal, b\u00f6yle bir hareket i\u00e7in muhtemelen ana kataliz\u00f6r olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc desteklemek ad\u0131na, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek enflasyon raporu \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %3,7\u2019de kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu durum RBA\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin duru\u015funu korumas\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, May\u0131s 2026 d\u00f6nemine ili\u015fkin son ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) raporu istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 160 bine yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koydu; bu da daha temkinli bir Fed senaryosunu destekliyor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, orta vadede AUD\/USD a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan temel olarak destekleyici.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimimize ra\u011fmen, her iki merkez bankas\u0131ndan da piyasay\u0131 oynatabilecek s\u00fcrpriz gelme riski ger\u00e7ek. Bu nedenle, kritik 0,7050 destek trend \u00e7izgisinin alt\u0131ndaki bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 da de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu, beklenmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u015fahin Fed s\u00f6ylemi ya da \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 derecede g\u00fcvercin bir RBA a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 maliyet-etkin bir korunma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
AUD\/USD\u2019de bir haftal\u0131k z\u0131mni volatilite \u015fu anda %9,5 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu da b\u00fcy\u00fck olaylar etraf\u0131ndaki belirsizli\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu durum, do\u011frudan opsiyon al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 nispeten pahal\u0131 hale getiriyor. Bu nedenle, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 nakit \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131rken 0,7145 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru bir harekete pozisyon almay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilmek i\u00e7in y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc al\u0131m spreadlerini (bull call spread) de de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
2022-2023 d\u00f6nemine d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasalar\u0131n RBA\u2019n\u0131n politika patikas\u0131n\u0131 Fed\u2019e k\u0131yasla daha agresif alg\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 zamanlarda AUD\/USD\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralli yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Tarihin tekerr\u00fcr etmesi halinde, RBA\u2019n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu korumas\u0131 ve Fed\u2019den g\u00fcvercin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f sinyali, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi tetikleyebilir. \u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmede (forward guidance) olas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimleri yakalamak i\u00e7in merkez bankas\u0131 metinlerini yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131yla risk i\u015ftah\u0131 AUD\/USD\u2019yi destekledi, ancak RBA ve Fed \u00f6ncesi temkinli. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm pozitif: 0,7090-0,7145 diren\u00e7, 0,7060-0,6980 destek. Opsiyonda call ve koruyucu put \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47793,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48813","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48813","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48813"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48813\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47793"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48813"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48813"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48813"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}