BBH, Riksbank\u2019\u0131n politika faizini alt\u0131nc\u0131 toplant\u0131da da %1,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 ve piyasan\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, politikan\u0131n piyasalar\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha uzun s\u00fcre k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, banka bu \u00e7er\u00e7eveyi \u0130sve\u00e7 kronu \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendiriyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcncellenen patikada Riksbank\u2019\u0131n 2026\u2019n\u0131n 4. \u00e7eyre\u011fine kadar faizlerde de\u011fi\u015fim mesaj\u0131 vermesi bekleniyor; ilk tam 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131 ise 2028 1. \u00e7eyrekten 2027 sonuna \u00e7ekilebilir. Senaryo, \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 enflasyon ve ekonomide at\u0131l kapasiteyle \u015fekilleniyor; bu da uzun s\u00fcre \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan toplant\u0131da Riksbank\u2019\u0131n politika faizini %1,75\u2019te tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun \u00fcst \u00fcste alt\u0131nc\u0131 \u201csabit b\u0131rakma\u201d olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa y\u0131l sonuna kadar 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; ancak merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bunun olas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde sinyal vermesini bekliyoruz. Piyasa ile bankan\u0131n muhtemel patikas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, belirgin bir f\u0131rsat alan\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Uzat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir sabit tutma senaryosu, \u0130sve\u00e7\u2019te \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 enflasyon ve ekonomide at\u0131l kapasiteye i\u015faret eden son verilerle destekleniyor. May\u0131s T\u00dcFE %1,7 ile %2\u2019lik hedefin alt\u0131nda seyreden enflasyon trendini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 da son d\u00f6nemde %7,9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. Bu g\u00f6stergeler, Riksbank\u2019\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerek\u00e7e sunuyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha zay\u0131f bir \u0130sve\u00e7 kronuna y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n daha \u015fahin bir duru\u015fa i\u015faret etmesiyle birlikte politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n SEK \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 beklenir. EUR\/SEK paritesinde y\u00fckseli\u015fe pozisyon almak i\u00e7in EUR\/SEK al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n etkili bir y\u00f6ntem oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130sve\u00e7 faiz piyasalar\u0131nda da dikkat \u00e7ekici bir i\u015flem f\u0131rsat\u0131 bulunuyor. Vadeli kontratlar h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda bizim hatal\u0131 buldu\u011fumuz faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar k\u0131sa vadeli faiz swaplar\u0131nda sabit faiz \u201creceive\u201d ederek (sabit faiz al\u0131p de\u011fi\u015fken \u00f6deyerek), piyasan\u0131n beklentilerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, bir merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek niyetleri piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131ndan ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, mesaj netle\u015fir netle\u015fmez kur h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde uyum sa\u011flar. Bu t\u00fcr durumlarda, yanl\u0131\u015f varsay\u0131mlarla olu\u015fturulan pozisyonlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeye zorlanmas\u0131 sert hareketlere yol a\u00e7abilir. Riksbank\u2019tan uzat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir \u201csabit tutma\u201d mesaj\u0131 da benzer bir hareketi tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasaya ters k\u00f6\u015fe: BBH, Riksbank\u2019\u0131n faizi %1,75\u2019te alt\u0131nc\u0131 kez sabit tutup y\u0131l sonu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 bo\u015fa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Uzun \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d SEK\u2019i zay\u0131flatabilir; EUR\/SEK call ve swap receive \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47670,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48806","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48806","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48806"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48806\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47670"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48806"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48806"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48806"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}