BBH, Riksbank\u2019\u0131n Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fcst \u00fcste alt\u0131nc\u0131 toplant\u0131da politika faizini %1,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 ve piyasan\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131 durmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Enflasyonun \u201c\u0131l\u0131ml\u0131\u201d seyretmesi ve ekonomide at\u0131l kapasite bulunmas\u0131 nedeniyle bankan\u0131n ana senaryosu, politikan\u0131n beklemede kalmaya devam etmesi; BBH bu zemini \u0130sve\u00e7 kronunun (SEK) zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendiriyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcncellenen faiz patikas\u0131nda BBH, Riksbank\u2019\u0131n 2026\u2019n\u0131n 4. \u00e7eyre\u011fine kadar de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmayaca\u011f\u0131 sinyalini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca ilk tam 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 2028\u2019in 1. \u00e7eyre\u011finden 2027\u2019nin sonlar\u0131na \u00e7ekilebilece\u011fini, ancak genel duru\u015fun yine de \u201cuzun s\u00fcreli bekleme\u201d olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Riksbank\u2019\u0131n bu hafta politika faizini yeniden %1,75\u2019te tutmas\u0131 beklenirken, bize g\u00f6re bir f\u0131rsat alan\u0131 olu\u015fuyor. Piyasa h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u0131l sonuna kadar 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; ancak merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bu beklentiyi aktif bi\u00e7imde cayd\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yoruz. Bu durum, piyasa beklentileri ile muhtemel merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131 aras\u0131nda net bir ayr\u0131\u015fma yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Uzun s\u00fcreli \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 son veriler de destekliyor. \u0130sve\u00e7\u2019te May\u0131s 2026 CPIF enflasyonu %1,9 ile Riksbank\u2019\u0131n %2 hedefinin hemen alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %7,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Zay\u0131f GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve ekonomideki belirgin at\u0131l kapasiteyle birlikte, Riksbank\u2019\u0131n politikay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir i\u00e7 bask\u0131 bulunmuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00f6zellikle ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u015fahin bir \u201cbekleme\u201d duru\u015funu korudu\u011fu ABD dolar\u0131 gibi para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 \u0130sve\u00e7 kronu i\u00e7in olumsuz. Piyasan\u0131n Riksbank beklentilerini yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131yla SEK\u2019in zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/SEK ve USD\/SEK\u2019te yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n i\u00e7in pozisyonlanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ifade etmenin do\u011frudan bir yolu opsiyon piyasas\u0131 \u00fczerinden ge\u00e7iyor. USD\/SEK\u2019te al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; bu, kronun zay\u0131flamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc maruziyet sunarken riski de tan\u0131ml\u0131 tutar. Riksbank\u2019\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir duru\u015fu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ima edilen volatilite g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olabilir; bu da bu t\u00fcr pozisyonlar i\u00e7in cazip bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak Riksbank, 2015-2019 d\u00f6neminde oldu\u011fu gibi, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011finden daha uzun s\u00fcre g\u00fcvercin bir duru\u015f s\u00fcrd\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu da s\u0131kl\u0131kla SEK\u2019in uzun s\u00fcreli zay\u0131f performans\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. \u015eimdi de benzer bir desenin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 ve kron short pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6d\u00fcllendirilmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasaya ters k\u00f6\u015fe: BBH, Riksbank\u2019\u0131n faizi %1,75\u2019te tutup y\u0131l sonu 25 bp art\u0131\u015f fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 cayd\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Il\u0131ml\u0131 enflasyon, at\u0131l kapasite ve \u015fahin Fed, SEK\u2019i zay\u0131flatabilir; USD\/SEK call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47702,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48805","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48805","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48805"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48805\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47702"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48805"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48805"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48805"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}