EUR\/GBP, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir seyirle 0,8645 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru y\u00fckselerek 0,8644 seviyesine yak\u0131n bir haftal\u0131k zirveleri test etti. ABD\u2013\u0130ran aras\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirmek ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mak \u00fczere bir mutabakat zapt\u0131na var\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 iyile\u015fti; bu geli\u015fme petrol\u00fcn \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine gerilemesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olurken Euro\u2019yu genel olarak destekledi. Ayr\u0131ca, ECB politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 Martins Kazaks ve Joachim Nagel\u2019in \u015fahin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda s\u00fcregelen enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131na at\u0131f yap\u0131ld\u0131. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de ise BoE\u2019nin politika karar\u0131n\u0131 bu hafta ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerde a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 bekleniyor; y\u00f6nlendirme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ve toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenecek.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta parite 0,8640\u2019\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde tutunarak ge\u00e7en haftaki band\u0131n \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; fiyat hareketi 0,8620 civar\u0131nda olu\u015fmaya ba\u015flayan bir tabana i\u015faret etti. 4 saatlik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde RSI 60\u2019a yakla\u015f\u0131rken MACD pozitif b\u00f6lgeye ge\u00e7ti; bu da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir toparlanma e\u011filimiyle uyumlu. Diren\u00e7ler 11 Haziran zirvesi 0,8644 ile ba\u015fl\u0131yor; ard\u0131ndan 4\u20135 Haziran zirveleri olan 0,8655\u20130,8660 band\u0131 ve bunun \u00f6tesinde May\u0131s sonuna yak\u0131n 0,8680 seviyesi izleniyor. Destek ise 0,8620 civar\u0131nda; bunun alt\u0131nda y\u0131l i\u00e7i dip 0,8612 yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
EUR\/GBP bo\u011falar\u0131n\u0131n 0,8644 diren\u00e7 seviyesini test etti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bunu, para politikas\u0131 beklentilerinde artan ayr\u0131\u015fma destekliyor. Bu i\u015flemin merkezinde, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na k\u0131yasla daha \u015fahin kalaca\u011f\u0131 inanc\u0131 bulunuyor. Yak\u0131n vadede bu kritik seviyenin \u00fczerinde olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma i\u00e7in pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Euro\u2019ya destek, ECB yetkililerinin enflasyona ili\u015fkin s\u00fcregelen endi\u015felerini dile getirmesinden geliyor; son veriler Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde May\u0131s enflasyonunun %2,3 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Tarihsel olarak ECB, benzerlerine k\u0131yasla enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleye daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131k sinyali verdi\u011finde Euro g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Bu da ECB\u2019nin faiz indirimlerinde daha yava\u015f kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentimizi besleyerek para birimi i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de enflasyonun %2,1\u2019e kadar so\u011fumas\u0131 ve \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131yla BoE\u2019nin s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131 azal\u0131yor. Piyasa, y\u0131l sonundan \u00f6nce BoE\u2019nin faiz indirimi yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ECB\u2019ye k\u0131yasla daha y\u00fcksek fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu politika fark\u0131, EUR\/GBP\u2019yi yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yan temel kataliz\u00f6r olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
Teknik grafik, 0,8620 b\u00f6lgesi etraf\u0131nda bir taban olu\u015ftu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor; bu b\u00f6lge son bir ayda bir\u00e7ok kez g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek sa\u011flad\u0131. Mevcut fiyat hareketini, ivme kazanma potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131yan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir toparlanma olarak yorumluyoruz. Bu deste\u011fe do\u011fru olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeler, y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon in\u015fa etmek i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendirilmeli.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f do\u011frultusunda, olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 oynamak i\u00e7in al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 0,8650 olan bir ayl\u0131k call opsiyonu, parite direnci a\u015farak 0,8680 seviyesine y\u00f6nelirse s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle getiri imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunuyor. Bu strateji, fiyattaki y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske maruz b\u0131rakm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Alternatif bir strateji ise, kilit deste\u011fin alt\u0131nda bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla\u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin 0,8600\u2019da\u2014sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu satmakt\u0131r. Bu, tahsil edilen prim \u00fczerinden gelir yarat\u0131r ve dip olu\u015ftu\u011funa dair g\u00fcvenimize dayanarak uygulanabilecek bir i\u015flemdir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m EUR\/GBP yatay kal\u0131r ya da y\u00fckselirse k\u00e2rl\u0131d\u0131r; s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle de uyumludur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/GBP\u2019de kritik 0,8644 direnci yeniden g\u00fcndemde: ABD\u2013\u0130ran haberi risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131p Euro\u2019yu destekledi. \u015eahin ECB, temkinli BoE ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla 0,8655-0,8680 hedefi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47765,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48798","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48798","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48798"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48798\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47765"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48798"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48798"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48798"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}