Brown Brothers Harriman, \u015eubat\u2019tan bu yana \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7 adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) bir sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini %4,35\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 ve bu y\u0131lki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n hanehalk\u0131 ve \u015firketler \u00fczerindeki etkisini de\u011ferlendirirken veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 bir bekleme s\u00fcrecine girmesini bekliyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f; zay\u0131f 1\u00c7 GSYH, g\u00fc\u00e7s\u00fcz i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 g\u00f6stergeleri ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyirli g\u00fcven verileriyle \u015fekilleniyor; s\u00f6z konusu g\u00f6stergeler, altta yatan talebin durgun seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 ise s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn bitti\u011fine daha az ikna olmu\u015f durumda: RBA nakit faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri, y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir adet ilave 25 baz puan art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da faizi %4,60\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131yacakt\u0131r. BBH bu beklentiyi payla\u015fm\u0131yor ve bunun yerine kur a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan g\u00f6reli faizleri referans al\u0131yor; Avustralya\u2013ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getiri farklar\u0131n\u0131n, AUD\/USD\u2019nin k\u0131sa vadede 0,7000\u2019in alt\u0131na sarkabilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti\u011fini savunuyor. \u0130\u00e7erik bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131 kullan\u0131larak \u00fcretildi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irildi.<\/p>\n
Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yar\u0131n politika faizini %4,35\u2019te tutmas\u0131 beklenirken, Avustralya dolar\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n i\u00e7in net bir alan g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Son veriler bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor: Nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin en son ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE g\u00f6stergesi %3,4\u2019e gerilerken, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Ekonomideki bu yumu\u015fama, RBA\u2019ya faiz art\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ara vermek i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gerek\u00e7eler sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Vadeli piyasalar\u0131n bu y\u0131l bir kez daha faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 %60 olarak fiyatlamas\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu beklentinin hatal\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve bir i\u015flem f\u0131rsat\u0131 sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. 0,7000 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak daha zay\u0131f bir AUD\/USD pozisyonu almay\u0131 tercih ederiz. Bu strateji, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 elde etmeye olanak tan\u0131rken potansiyel riski de s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Temel itici g\u00fc\u00e7, Avustralya ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesi olmaya devam ediyor ve bu durum ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. Bizim merkez bankam\u0131z bekle-g\u00f6r modundayken, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) yetkililerinden gelen son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, kendi enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korurken faiz indiriminde aceleci olmad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Tarihsel olarak, 2014\u2019te g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcze benzer \u015fekilde merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131ndaki bu t\u00fcr bir ayr\u0131\u015fma, AUD\/USD kurunda \u00e7o\u011fu zaman kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
RBA yar\u0131n faizi %4,35\u2019te sabit tutup bekle-g\u00f6re ge\u00e7ebilir; zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ve g\u00fcven bask\u0131s\u0131 art\u0131yor. Piyasa 25 bp art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %60 fiyatl\u0131yor; BBH kat\u0131lm\u0131yor, AUD\/USD 0,7000 alt\u0131 risk diyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47791,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48796","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48796","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48796"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48796\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47791"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48796"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48796"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48796"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}