\u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de \u00fcretici ve ithalat fiyatlar\u0131 May\u0131s ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda %0,4 gerileyerek %0,4 art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki tahmini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131. Sonu\u00e7, beklentilere k\u0131yasla 0,8 y\u00fczde puanl\u0131k bir fark anlam\u0131na geliyor ve son ayl\u0131k veride \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha yumu\u015fak fiyatlama ko\u015fullar\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Veriler, \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131 ile ithalat fiyatlar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeleri birle\u015ftiriyor ve ayl\u0131k bazda raporlan\u0131yor. May\u0131s ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesinin -%0,4 ile piyasa beklentisi olan +%0,4\u2019\u00fcn kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda gelmesi, ay boyunca fiyatlama hatt\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki -%0,4\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn, %0,4 art\u0131\u015f beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelmesi, \u0130svi\u00e7re ekonomisi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir dezenflasyon sinyali. Bunun, \u0130svi\u00e7re Ulusal Bankas\u0131\u2019na (SNB) faiz indirimi i\u00e7in daha \u00f6nce \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha erken bir zamanlamada \u201cnet bir alan\u201d a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu sabah itibar\u0131yla gecelik endeks swaplar\u0131, SNB\u2019nin Eyl\u00fcl 2026 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %80 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran ge\u00e7en hafta yaln\u0131zca %35 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
Bu geli\u015fme, \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 (CHF) i\u00e7in negatif g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bunu, EUR\/CHF paritesinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak konumland\u0131r\u0131yoruz; daha temkinli bir Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n destekledi\u011fi euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda frang\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu strateji, farkl\u0131la\u015fan enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn EUR\/CHF\u2019de benzer bir ralliyi tetikledi\u011fi 2023 sonundaki fiyat hareketini yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u0130svi\u00e7re Piyasa Endeksi (SMI) i\u00e7in pozitif bir sinyal. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck finansman maliyetlerinin Roche ve Nestl\u00e9 gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 do\u011frudan desteklemesi beklendi\u011finden, SMI\u2019da vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. \u0130svi\u00e7re \u015firket tahvili getirileri de bu sabah 10 baz puan gerileyerek bu alg\u0131y\u0131 yans\u0131tt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu s\u00fcrpriz veri, CHF ile ili\u015fkili varl\u0131klarda k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 muhtemelen art\u0131racak. USD\/CHF kurunda straddle (her iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc) stratejisi sat\u0131n almay\u0131 bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu strateji, fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne olursa olsun b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareket yapmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan gelen son verilerin faizleri sabit tutma taahh\u00fcd\u00fcne i\u015faret etmesiyle birlikte ABD ile \u0130svi\u00e7re aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 daha belirgin hale geliyor; bu durum tipik olarak d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 hareketlerini besler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz veri: \u0130svi\u00e7re \u00fcretici\/ithalat fiyatlar\u0131 May\u0131s\u2019ta %0,4 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; +%0,4 beklentiyi 0,8 puan a\u015ft\u0131. Dezenflasyon SNB\u2019ye erken indirim alan\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131yor; CHF zay\u0131flayabilir, SMI destek bulabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47680,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48792","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48792","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48792"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48792\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47680"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48792"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48792"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48792"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}